Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville: Over/Under Analysis
Tuesday Dec 23, 2025 2:00 pm -
Boca Raton, FL
(Neutral Site)
Odds:
Louisville by 12.5,
Total Points:
44.5
Matchup Menu: TOL vs. LOU
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Model | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 44.5 | Official TR Pick | 50% odds to go over |
| Over 44.5 | Decision Tree | 50% odds to go over |
| Under 44.5 | Similar Games | 52% odds to go under |
Over/Under Situational Trends
| Record | TOL | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Season | 2-0-0 | 2-0-0 |
| vs Conference | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Streak | Ov 2 | Ov 2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Last 10 | 2-0-0 | 2-0-0 |
| Home | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Away | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
Records denote overs-unders-pushes
Toledo Detailed Over/Under Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Total | Score | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30 | Away | Kentucky | 49.0 | 16-24 | Under | -9.0 |
| 09/06 | Home | W Kentucky | 57.5 | 45-21 | Over | +8.5 |
| 09/13 | Home | Morgan St | 54.5 | 60-0 | Over | +5.5 |
| 09/20 | Away | W Michigan | 49.5 | 13-14 | Under | -22.5 |
| 09/27 | Home | Akron | 51.0 | 45-3 | Under | -3.0 |
| 10/11 | Away | Bowling Green | 46.0 | 23-28 | Over | +5.0 |
| 10/18 | Home | Kent St | 48.5 | 45-10 | Over | +6.5 |
| 10/25 | Away | Washington St | 45.5 | 7-28 | Under | -10.5 |
| 11/05 | Home | N Illinois | 41.5 | 42-3 | Over | +3.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | Miami OH | 44.5 | 24-3 | Under | -17.5 |
| 11/22 | Home | Ball St | 44.5 | 38-9 | Over | +2.5 |
| 11/29 | Away | C Michigan | 46.5 | 21-3 | Under | -22.5 |
| 12/23 | Neutral | Louisville | 44.5 | 22-27 | Over | +4.5 |
Louisville Detailed Over/Under Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Total | Score | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/30 | Home | E Kentucky | 56.5 | 51-17 | Over | +11.5 |
| 09/05 | Home | J Madison | 56.5 | 28-14 | Under | -14.5 |
| 09/20 | Home | Bowling Green | 51.0 | 40-17 | Over | +6.0 |
| 09/27 | Away | Pittsburgh | 54.0 | 34-27 | Over | +7.0 |
| 10/04 | Home | Virginia | 60.5 | 27-30 | Under | -3.5 |
| 10/17 | Away | Miami | 49.5 | 24-21 | Under | -4.5 |
| 10/25 | Home | Boston College | 54.5 | 38-24 | Over | +7.5 |
| 11/01 | Away | Virginia Tech | 53.5 | 28-16 | Under | -9.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | California | 49.0 | 26-29 | Over | +6.0 |
| 11/14 | Home | Clemson | 51.0 | 19-20 | Under | -12.0 |
| 11/22 | Away | SMU | 50.0 | 6-38 | Under | -6.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Kentucky | 45.5 | 41-0 | Under | -4.5 |
| 12/23 | Neutral | Toledo | 44.5 | 27-22 | Over | +4.5 |