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Louisville at North Carolina: Point Spread Analysis

Monday Feb 23, 2026 7:00 pm - Chapel Hill, NC
Odds: Louisville by 3.5, Total Points: 162.5

Matchup Menu: LOU @ UNC

More Games From Feb 23, 2026

ATS Predictions

Pick Model Confidence
North Carolina +3.5 Official TR Pick North Carolina 51% odds to cover
North Carolina +3.5 Power Rating Model North Carolina 71% odds to cover
North Carolina +3.5 Similar Games North Carolina 53% odds to cover
North Carolina +3.5 Decision Tree North Carolina 51% odds to cover
North Carolina +3.5 Predictive Ratings North Carolina 60% odds to cover

ATS Situational Trends

Record LOU adv UNC
Season 17-18-0 19-14-0
vs Division 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs Conference 7-13-0 11-8-0
Streak L1 L1
Last 5 2-3-0 3-2-0
Last 10 3-7-0 6-4-0
Home 10-7-0 12-6-0
Away 7-11-0 7-8-0

Louisville Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/03 Home S Carolina St -36.5 W by 59 +22.5
11/06 Home Jackson St -38.5 W by 36 -2.5
11/11 Home Kentucky -6.0 W by 8 +2.0
11/15 Home Ohio -31.0 W by 25 -6.0
11/21 Neutral Cincinnati -8.5 W by 10 +1.5
11/24 Home E Michigan -33.5 W by 41 +7.5
11/26 Home NJIT -43.5 W by 57 +13.5
12/03 Away Arkansas -2.0 L by 9 -11.0
12/06 Neutral Indiana -4.0 W by 9 +5.0
12/13 Home Memphis -16.5 W by 26 +9.5
12/16 Away Tennessee +4.5 L by 21 -16.5
12/20 Home Montana -30.5 W by 40 +9.5
12/30 Away California -7.5 W by 20 +12.5
01/02 Away Stanford -7.0 L by 4 -11.0
01/06 Home Duke (Pick) L by 11 -11.0
01/10 Home Boston College -21.0 W by 13 -8.0
01/13 Home Virginia -4.5 L by 9 -13.5
01/17 Away Pittsburgh -7.0 W by 41 +34.0
01/24 Home Virginia Tech -13.5 W by 14 +0.5
01/26 Away Duke +8.5 L by 31 -22.5
01/31 Home SMU -9.5 W by 14 +4.5
02/04 Home Notre Dame -18.0 W by 11 -7.0
02/07 Away Wake Forest -9.5 W by 8 -1.5
02/09 Home NC State -7.5 W by 41 +33.5
02/14 Neutral Baylor -7.0 W by 11 +4.0
02/17 Away SMU -4.0 L by 10 -14.0
02/21 Home Georgia Tech -23.0 W by 17 -6.0
02/23 Away North Carolina -3.5 L by 3 -6.5
02/28 Away Clemson -2.5 L by 5 -7.5
03/03 Home Syracuse -14.5 W by 15 +0.5
03/07 Away Miami +1.5 W by 3 +4.5
03/11 Neutral SMU -6.5 W by 4 -2.5
03/12 Neutral Miami -1.5 L by 5 -6.5
03/19 Neutral S Florida -2.5 W by 4 +1.5
03/21 Neutral Michigan St +5.5 L by 8 -2.5

North Carolina Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/03 Home C Arkansas -31.0 W by 40 +9.0
11/07 Home Kansas -3.0 W by 13 +10.0
11/11 Home Radford -20.0 W by 15 -5.0
11/14 Home NC Central -34.0 W by 44 +10.0
11/18 Home Navy -26.5 W by 12 -14.5
11/25 Neutral St Bonaventure -11.0 W by 15 +4.0
11/27 Neutral Michigan St +1.0 L by 16 -15.0
12/02 Away Kentucky +7.5 W by 3 +10.5
12/07 Home Georgetown -10.5 W by 20 +9.5
12/13 Home SC Upstate -29.5 W by 18 -11.5
12/16 Home E Tennessee St -17.5 W by 19 +1.5
12/20 Neutral Ohio St -2.5 W by 1 -1.5
12/22 Home E Carolina -25.5 W by 48 +22.5
12/30 Home Florida St -12.0 W by 13 +1.0
01/03 Away SMU +1.0 L by 14 -13.0
01/10 Home Wake Forest -10.0 W by 3 -7.0
01/14 Away Stanford -4.0 L by 5 -9.0
01/17 Away California -7.5 L by 6 -13.5
01/21 Home Notre Dame -13.5 W by 22 +8.5
01/24 Away Virginia +6.5 W by 5 +11.5
01/31 Away Georgia Tech -10.5 W by 16 +5.5
02/02 Home Syracuse -11.5 W by 10 -1.5
02/07 Home Duke +6.0 W by 3 +9.0
02/10 Away Miami -1.0 L by 9 -10.0
02/14 Home Pittsburgh -11.5 W by 14 +2.5
02/17 Away NC State +8.0 L by 24 -16.0
02/21 Away Syracuse +1.5 W by 13 +14.5
02/23 Home Louisville +3.5 W by 3 +6.5
02/28 Home Virginia Tech -7.5 W by 7 -0.5
03/03 Home Clemson -2.5 W by 4 +1.5
03/07 Away Duke +18.5 L by 15 +3.5
03/12 Neutral Clemson +1.5 L by 1 +0.5
03/19 Neutral VCU -2.5 L by 4 -6.5