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Louisville at North Carolina: Over/Under Analysis

Monday Feb 23, 2026 7:00 pm - Chapel Hill, NC
Odds: Louisville by 3.5, Total Points: 162.5

Matchup Menu: LOU @ UNC

More Games From Feb 23, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 162.5	Official TR Pick	53% odds to go over
Over 162.5	Decision Tree	53% odds to go over
Under 162.5	Similar Games	51% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	LOU	UNC
Season	15-20-0	14-19-0
vs Division	0-0-0	0-0-0
vs Conference	8-12-0	10-9-0
Streak	Un 1	Ov 2
Last 5	2-3-0	3-2-0
Last 10	4-6-0	3-7-0
Home	6-11-0	6-12-0
Away	9-9-0	8-7-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Louisville Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Home	S Carolina St	159.0	104-45	Under	-10.0
11/06	Home	Jackson St	165.5	106-70	Over	+10.5
11/11	Home	Kentucky	173.0	96-88	Over	+11.0
11/15	Home	Ohio	175.0	106-81	Over	+12.0
11/21	Neutral	Cincinnati	164.0	74-64	Under	-26.0
11/24	Home	E Michigan	162.5	87-46	Under	-29.5
11/26	Home	NJIT	158.5	104-47	Under	-7.5
12/03	Away	Arkansas	166.5	80-89	Over	+2.5
12/06	Neutral	Indiana	162.5	87-78	Over	+2.5
12/13	Home	Memphis	162.5	99-73	Over	+9.5
12/16	Away	Tennessee	156.5	62-83	Under	-11.5
12/20	Home	Montana	165.0	94-54	Under	-17.0
12/30	Away	California	159.0	90-70	Over	+1.0
01/02	Away	Stanford	157.5	76-80	Under	-1.5
01/06	Home	Duke	160.5	73-84	Under	-3.5
01/10	Home	Boston College	151.0	75-62	Under	-14.0
01/13	Home	Virginia	155.0	70-79	Under	-6.0
01/17	Away	Pittsburgh	152.5	100-59	Over	+6.5
01/24	Home	Virginia Tech	160.5	85-71	Under	-4.5
01/26	Away	Duke	157.0	52-83	Under	-22.0
01/31	Home	SMU	161.5	88-74	Over	+0.5
02/04	Home	Notre Dame	156.5	76-65	Under	-15.5
02/07	Away	Wake Forest	160.5	88-80	Over	+7.5
02/09	Home	NC State	161.5	118-77	Over	+33.5
02/14	Neutral	Baylor	162.5	82-71	Under	-9.5
02/17	Away	SMU	168.0	85-95	Over	+12.0
02/21	Home	Georgia Tech	167.5	87-70	Under	-10.5
02/23	Away	North Carolina	162.5	74-77	Under	-11.5
02/28	Away	Clemson	146.5	75-80	Over	+8.5
03/03	Home	Syracuse	159.5	77-62	Under	-20.5
03/07	Away	Miami	155.5	92-89	Over	+25.5
03/11	Neutral	SMU	164.5	62-58	Under	-44.5
03/12	Neutral	Miami	152.5	73-78	Under	-1.5
03/19	Neutral	S Florida	160.5	83-79	Over	+1.5
03/21	Neutral	Michigan St	151.5	69-77	Under	-5.5

North Carolina Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Home	C Arkansas	157.5	94-54	Under	-9.5
11/07	Home	Kansas	158.0	87-74	Over	+3.0
11/11	Home	Radford	163.5	89-74	Under	-0.5
11/14	Home	NC Central	159.5	97-53	Under	-9.5
11/18	Home	Navy	161.0	73-61	Under	-27.0
11/25	Neutral	St Bonaventure	151.5	85-70	Over	+3.5
11/27	Neutral	Michigan St	152.5	58-74	Under	-20.5
12/02	Away	Kentucky	163.5	67-64	Under	-32.5
12/07	Home	Georgetown	149.5	81-61	Under	-7.5
12/13	Home	SC Upstate	152.5	80-62	Under	-10.5
12/16	Home	E Tennessee St	150.5	77-58	Under	-15.5
12/20	Neutral	Ohio St	157.5	71-70	Under	-16.5
12/22	Home	E Carolina	144.5	99-51	Over	+5.5
12/30	Home	Florida St	166.5	79-66	Under	-21.5
01/03	Away	SMU	155.5	83-97	Over	+24.5
01/10	Home	Wake Forest	155.0	87-84	Over	+16.0
01/14	Away	Stanford	148.0	90-95	Over	+37.0
01/17	Away	California	151.0	78-84	Over	+11.0
01/21	Home	Notre Dame	149.0	91-69	Over	+11.0
01/24	Away	Virginia	148.5	85-80	Over	+16.5
01/31	Away	Georgia Tech	159.5	91-75	Over	+6.5
02/02	Home	Syracuse	158.0	87-77	Over	+6.0
02/07	Home	Duke	151.5	71-68	Under	-12.5
02/10	Away	Miami	156.5	66-75	Under	-15.5
02/14	Home	Pittsburgh	144.5	79-65	Under	-0.5
02/17	Away	NC State	155.5	58-82	Under	-15.5
02/21	Away	Syracuse	154.0	77-64	Under	-13.0
02/23	Home	Louisville	162.5	77-74	Under	-11.5
02/28	Home	Virginia Tech	149.5	89-82	Over	+21.5
03/03	Home	Clemson	141.5	67-63	Under	-11.5
03/07	Away	Duke	147.5	61-76	Under	-10.5
03/12	Neutral	Clemson	140.5	79-80	Over	+18.5
03/19	Neutral	VCU	150.5	78-82	Over	+9.5