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Miami at Okla City: Over/Under Analysis

Sunday Jan 11, 2026 7:00 pm - Oklahoma City, OK
Odds: Oklahoma City by 15.5, Total Points: 234.5

Matchup Menu: MIA @ OKC

More Games From Jan 11, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 234.5	Official TR Pick	51% odds to go over
Over 234.5	Decision Tree	51% odds to go over
Under 234.5	Similar Games	56% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MIA	OKC
Season	47-36-0	54-43-0
vs Division	12-6-0	10-6-0
vs Conference	28-25-0	39-28-0
Streak	Ov 4	Ov 1
Last 5	4-1-0	3-2-0
Last 10	8-2-0	8-2-0
Home	23-18-0	27-22-0
Away	24-18-0	27-21-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5

Okla City Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/21	Home	Houston	226.0	125-124	Over	+23.0
10/23	Away	Indiana	231.5	141-135	Over	+44.5
10/25	Away	Atlanta	237.0	117-100	Under	-20.0
10/27	Away	Dallas	226.0	101-94	Under	-31.0
10/28	Home	Sacramento	227.5	107-101	Under	-19.5
10/30	Home	Washington	231.5	127-108	Over	+3.5
11/02	Home	New Orleans	229.0	137-106	Over	+14.0
11/04	Away	LA Clippers	219.5	126-107	Over	+13.5
11/05	Away	Portland	231.5	119-121	Over	+8.5
11/07	Away	Sacramento	234.5	132-101	Under	-1.5
11/09	Away	Memphis	231.5	114-100	Under	-17.5
11/11	Home	Golden State	227.5	126-102	Over	+0.5
11/12	Home	LA Lakers	229.5	121-92	Under	-16.5
11/15	Away	Charlotte	224.5	109-96	Under	-19.5
11/17	Away	New Orleans	223.5	126-109	Over	+11.5
11/19	Home	Sacramento	232.5	113-99	Under	-20.5
11/21	Away	Utah	234.5	144-112	Over	+21.5
11/23	Home	Portland	234.5	122-95	Under	-17.5
11/26	Home	Minnesota	226.5	113-105	Under	-8.5
11/28	Home	Phoenix	223.5	123-119	Over	+18.5
11/30	Away	Portland	233.5	123-115	Over	+4.5
12/02	Away	Golden State	223.5	124-112	Over	+12.5
12/05	Home	Dallas	229.5	132-111	Over	+13.5
12/07	Away	Utah	233.5	131-101	Under	-1.5
12/10	Home	Phoenix	221.5	138-89	Over	+5.5
12/13	Neutral	San Antonio	233.5	109-111	Under	-13.5
12/18	Home	LA Clippers	223.5	122-101	Under	-0.5
12/19	Away	Minnesota	232.5	107-112	Under	-13.5
12/22	Home	Memphis	234.5	119-103	Under	-12.5
12/23	Away	San Antonio	235.5	110-130	Over	+4.5
12/25	Home	San Antonio	234.5	102-117	Under	-15.5
12/28	Home	Philadelphia	226.5	129-104	Over	+6.5
12/29	Home	Atlanta	232.5	140-129	Over	+36.5
12/31	Home	Portland	232.5	124-95	Under	-13.5
01/02	Away	Golden State	226.5	131-94	Under	-1.5
01/04	Away	Phoenix	229.5	105-108	Under	-16.5
01/05	Home	Charlotte	235.5	97-124	Under	-14.5
01/07	Home	Utah	242.5	129-125	Over	+11.5
01/09	Away	Memphis	229.5	117-116	Over	+3.5
01/11	Home	Miami	234.5	124-112	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	San Antonio	230.5	119-98	Under	-13.5
01/15	Away	Houston	221.5	111-91	Under	-19.5
01/17	Away	Miami	234.5	120-122	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Cleveland	229.5	136-104	Over	+10.5
01/21	Away	Milwaukee	224.5	122-102	Under	-0.5
01/23	Home	Indiana	226.5	114-117	Over	+4.5
01/25	Home	Toronto	224.5	101-103	Under	-20.5
01/27	Home	New Orleans	233.5	104-95	Under	-34.5
01/29	Away	Minnesota	227.5	111-123	Over	+6.5
02/01	Away	Denver	225.5	121-111	Over	+6.5
02/03	Home	Orlando	222.5	128-92	Under	-2.5
02/04	Away	San Antonio	221.5	106-116	Over	+0.5
02/07	Home	Houston	213.5	106-112	Over	+4.5
02/09	Away	LA Lakers	223.5	119-110	Over	+5.5
02/11	Away	Phoenix	215.5	136-109	Over	+29.5
02/12	Home	Milwaukee	214.5	93-110	Under	-11.5
02/20	Home	Brooklyn	215.5	105-86	Under	-24.5
02/22	Home	Cleveland	228.5	121-113	Over	+5.5
02/24	Away	Toronto	217.5	116-107	Over	+5.5
02/25	Away	Detroit	221.5	116-124	Over	+18.5
02/27	Home	Denver	235.5	127-121	Over	+12.5
03/01	Away	Dallas	235.5	100-87	Under	-48.5
03/03	Away	Chicago	231.5	116-108	Under	-7.5
03/04	Away	New York	221.5	103-100	Under	-18.5
03/07	Home	Golden State	220.5	104-97	Under	-19.5
03/09	Home	Denver	236.5	129-126	Over	+18.5
03/12	Home	Boston	217.5	104-102	Under	-11.5
03/15	Home	Minnesota	228.5	116-103	Under	-9.5
03/17	Away	Orlando	224.5	113-108	Under	-3.5
03/18	Away	Brooklyn	215.5	121-92	Under	-2.5
03/21	Away	Washington	231.5	132-111	Over	+11.5
03/23	Away	Philadelphia	226.5	123-103	Under	-0.5
03/25	Away	Boston	221.5	109-119	Over	+6.5
03/27	Home	Chicago	240.5	131-113	Over	+3.5
03/29	Home	New York	223.5	111-100	Under	-12.5
03/30	Home	Detroit	216.5	114-110	Over	+7.5
04/02	Home	LA Lakers	232.5	139-96	Over	+2.5
04/05	Home	Utah	239.5	146-111	Over	+17.5
04/07	Away	LA Lakers	220.5	123-87	Under	-10.5
04/08	Away	LA Clippers	224.5	128-110	Over	+13.5
04/10	Away	Denver	222.5	107-127	Over	+11.5
04/12	Home	Phoenix	212.5	103-135	Over	+25.5
04/19	Home	Phoenix	215.5	119-84	Under	-12.5
04/22	Home	Phoenix	215.5	120-107	Over	+11.5
04/25	Away	Phoenix	212.5	121-109	Over	+17.5
04/27	Away	Phoenix	215.5	131-122	Over	+37.5
05/05	Home	LA Lakers	212.5	108-90	Under	-14.5
05/07	Home	LA Lakers	211.5	125-107	Over	+20.5
05/09	Away	LA Lakers	210.5	131-108	Over	+28.5
05/11	Away	LA Lakers	214.5	115-110	Over	+10.5
05/18	Home	San Antonio	219.5	115-122	Over	+17.5
05/20	Home	San Antonio	213.5	122-113	Over	+21.5
05/22	Away	San Antonio	219.5	123-108	Over	+11.5
05/24	Away	San Antonio	219.5	82-103	Under	-34.5
05/26	Home	San Antonio	216.5	127-114	Over	+24.5
05/28	Away	San Antonio	219.5	91-118	Under	-10.5
05/30	Home	San Antonio	212.5	103-111	Over	+1.5