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Miami at Florida St: Over/Under Analysis

Tuesday Feb 24, 2026 9:00 pm - Tallahassee, FL
Odds: Miami by 2.5, Total Points: 153.5

Over/Under Predictions

Pick Model Confidence
Under 153.5 Official TR Pick 51% odds to go under
Under 153.5 Similar Games 54% odds to go under
Under 153.5 Decision Tree 51% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record MIA FSU
Season 21-12-1 17-16-0
vs Division 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs Conference 11-8-1 12-8-0
Streak Ov 3 Ov 4
Last 5 4-1-0 4-1-0
Last 10 6-4-0 7-3-0
Home 12-4-1 8-9-0
Away 9-8-0 9-7-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Total Score Result +/-
11/03 Home Jacksonville 142.5 86-69 Over +12.5
11/06 Home Bethune 155.0 101-61 Over +7.0
11/10 Home Stetson 162.0 102-61 Over +1.0
11/16 Neutral Florida 171.5 68-82 Under -21.5
11/20 Home Elon 164.5 99-72 Over +6.5
11/23 Home Delaware St -- 97-41 Under --
11/27 Neutral BYU 165.0 62-72 Under -31.0
11/28 Neutral Georgetown 152.0 78-65 Under -9.0
12/02 Away Mississippi 145.5 75-66 Under -4.5
12/06 Home Southern Miss 145.5 88-64 Over +6.5
12/13 Home UL Monroe 153.5 104-79 Over +29.5
12/16 Home Florida Intl 161.5 98-81 Over +17.5
12/21 Home N Florida 170.5 105-67 Over +1.5
12/30 Home Pittsburgh 145.0 76-69 Push 0.0
01/07 Away Wake Forest 157.5 81-77 Over +0.5
01/10 Home Georgia Tech 156.5 91-81 Over +15.5
01/13 Away Notre Dame 143.0 81-69 Over +7.0
01/17 Away Clemson 143.0 59-69 Under -15.0
01/20 Home Florida St 163.5 63-65 Under -35.5
01/24 Away Syracuse 150.5 85-76 Over +10.5
01/28 Home Stanford 147.5 79-70 Over +1.5
01/31 Home California 149.5 85-86 Over +21.5
02/07 Away Boston College 141.5 74-68 Over +0.5
02/10 Home North Carolina 156.5 75-66 Under -15.5
02/14 Away NC State 158.0 77-76 Under -5.0
02/17 Home Virginia Tech 148.5 67-66 Under -15.5
02/21 Away Virginia 146.5 83-86 Over +22.5
02/24 Away Florida St 153.5 83-73 Over +2.5
02/28 Home Boston College 143.5 76-54 Under -13.5
03/04 Away SMU 156.5 77-69 Under -10.5
03/07 Home Louisville 155.5 89-92 Over +25.5
03/12 Neutral Louisville 152.5 78-73 Under -1.5
03/13 Neutral Virginia 145.5 62-84 Over +0.5
03/20 Neutral Missouri 145.5 80-66 Over +0.5
03/22 Neutral Purdue 147.5 69-79 Over +0.5

Florida St Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Total Score Result +/-
11/04 Home Alcorn St 157.0 108-76 Over +27.0
11/07 Home Alabama St 166.5 101-64 Under -1.5
11/11 Away Florida 180.5 76-78 Under -26.5
11/18 Home UT Martin 165.0 87-73 Under -5.0
11/21 Home Georgia So 175.5 98-72 Under -5.5
11/25 Home CS Bakersfield 159.5 89-59 Under -11.5
11/28 Neutral Texas A&M 175.0 59-95 Under -21.0
12/02 Home Georgia 176.5 73-107 Over +3.5
12/06 Neutral Houston 148.5 67-82 Over +0.5
12/13 Neutral UMass 165.5 95-103 Over +32.5
12/16 Away Dayton 163.0 69-97 Over +3.0
12/19 Home Miss Valley St 164.5 96-49 Under -19.5
12/22 Home Jacksonville 160.0 87-63 Under -10.0
12/30 Away North Carolina 166.5 66-79 Under -21.5
01/03 Home Duke 163.0 87-91 Over +15.0
01/10 Home NC State 160.0 69-113 Over +22.0
01/13 Away Syracuse 160.5 86-94 Over +19.5
01/17 Home Wake Forest 168.5 68-69 Under -31.5
01/20 Away Miami 163.5 65-63 Under -35.5
01/24 Away SMU 164.5 80-83 Under -1.5
01/28 Home California 157.5 63-61 Under -33.5
01/31 Home Stanford 150.5 88-80 Over +17.5
02/07 Away Notre Dame 153.0 82-79 Over +8.0
02/10 Home Virginia 156.0 58-61 Under -37.0
02/14 Away Virginia Tech 156.5 92-69 Over +4.5
02/17 Home Boston College 148.0 80-72 Over +4.0
02/21 Away Clemson 143.5 70-65 Under -8.5
02/24 Home Miami 153.5 73-83 Over +2.5
02/28 Away Georgia Tech 158.5 80-71 Under -7.5
03/04 Away Pittsburgh 144.5 75-74 Over +4.5
03/07 Home SMU 158.5 91-78 Over +10.5
03/11 Neutral California 154.5 95-89 Over +29.5
03/12 Neutral Duke 150.5 79-80 Over +8.5