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Southern Miss vs. App State: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Mar 7, 2026 6:30 pm - Pensacola, FL (Neutral Site)
Odds: App State by 4.5, Total Points: 137.5

Matchup Menu: USM vs. APP

More Games From Mar 7, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring USM APP
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting USM APP
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 52.2
Field Goal % 40.0% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 28.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.4% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 23.5
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 30.5%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 27.2
Free Throw % 73.3% 65.2%
Ball Control USM APP
Rebounds 35.3 36.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.0
Turnovers 9.2 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 4.1
Steals 5.1 4.4
Fouls 19.0 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USM APP
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with USM APP
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 36.0%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 29.5%
Player Fouled 22.8% 27.7%
Turnover 13.3% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USM APP
Shot Blocked 8.0% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 29.0%