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Louisville vs. Michigan St: Point Spread Analysis

Saturday Mar 21, 2026 2:45 pm - Buffalo, NY (Neutral Site)
Odds: Michigan State by 5.5, Total Points: 151.5

Matchup Menu: LOU vs. MSU

More Games From Mar 21, 2026

ATS Predictions

Pick Model Confidence
Michigan St -5.5 Official TR Pick Michigan St 52% odds to cover
Michigan St -5.5 Decision Tree Michigan St 52% odds to cover
Louisville +5.5 Power Rating Model Louisville 65% odds to cover
Louisville +5.5 Similar Games Louisville 54% odds to cover
Louisville +5.5 Predictive Ratings Louisville 66% odds to cover

ATS Situational Trends

Record LOU adv MSU
Season 17-18-0 17-16-2
vs Division 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs Conference 7-13-0 11-9-1
Streak L1 L1
Last 5 2-3-0 3-2-0
Last 10 3-7-0 6-4-0
Home 10-7-0 7-9-1
Away 7-11-0 10-7-1

Louisville Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/03 Home S Carolina St -36.5 W by 59 +22.5
11/06 Home Jackson St -38.5 W by 36 -2.5
11/11 Home Kentucky -6.0 W by 8 +2.0
11/15 Home Ohio -31.0 W by 25 -6.0
11/21 Neutral Cincinnati -8.5 W by 10 +1.5
11/24 Home E Michigan -33.5 W by 41 +7.5
11/26 Home NJIT -43.5 W by 57 +13.5
12/03 Away Arkansas -2.0 L by 9 -11.0
12/06 Neutral Indiana -4.0 W by 9 +5.0
12/13 Home Memphis -16.5 W by 26 +9.5
12/16 Away Tennessee +4.5 L by 21 -16.5
12/20 Home Montana -30.5 W by 40 +9.5
12/30 Away California -7.5 W by 20 +12.5
01/02 Away Stanford -7.0 L by 4 -11.0
01/06 Home Duke (Pick) L by 11 -11.0
01/10 Home Boston College -21.0 W by 13 -8.0
01/13 Home Virginia -4.5 L by 9 -13.5
01/17 Away Pittsburgh -7.0 W by 41 +34.0
01/24 Home Virginia Tech -13.5 W by 14 +0.5
01/26 Away Duke +8.5 L by 31 -22.5
01/31 Home SMU -9.5 W by 14 +4.5
02/04 Home Notre Dame -18.0 W by 11 -7.0
02/07 Away Wake Forest -9.5 W by 8 -1.5
02/09 Home NC State -7.5 W by 41 +33.5
02/14 Neutral Baylor -7.0 W by 11 +4.0
02/17 Away SMU -4.0 L by 10 -14.0
02/21 Home Georgia Tech -23.0 W by 17 -6.0
02/23 Away North Carolina -3.5 L by 3 -6.5
02/28 Away Clemson -2.5 L by 5 -7.5
03/03 Home Syracuse -14.5 W by 15 +0.5
03/07 Away Miami +1.5 W by 3 +4.5
03/11 Neutral SMU -6.5 W by 4 -2.5
03/12 Neutral Miami -1.5 L by 5 -6.5
03/19 Neutral S Florida -2.5 W by 4 +1.5
03/21 Neutral Michigan St +5.5 L by 8 -2.5

Michigan St Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/03 Home Colgate -22.0 W by 11 -11.0
11/08 Home Arkansas -2.5 W by 3 +0.5
11/13 Home San Jose St -24.5 W by 19 -5.5
11/18 Neutral Kentucky +3.5 W by 17 +20.5
11/21 Home Detroit Mercy -30.5 W by 28 -2.5
11/25 Neutral E Carolina -20.0 W by 33 +13.0
11/27 Neutral North Carolina -1.0 W by 16 +15.0
12/02 Home Iowa -4.5 W by 19 +14.5
12/06 Home Duke +1.0 L by 6 -5.0
12/13 Away Penn St -12.5 W by 4 -8.5
12/16 Home Toledo -23.0 W by 23 0.0
12/20 Neutral Oakland -20.0 W by 9 -11.0
12/29 Home Cornell -23.5 W by 17 -6.5
01/02 Away Nebraska +2.0 L by 2 0.0
01/05 Home USC -12.0 W by 29 +17.0
01/08 Home Northwestern -13.0 W by 10 -3.0
01/13 Home Indiana -6.5 W by 21 +14.5
01/17 Away Washington -3.5 W by 17 +13.5
01/20 Away Oregon -10.0 W by 16 +6.0
01/24 Home Maryland -18.5 W by 43 +24.5
01/27 Away Rutgers -14.5 W by 9 -5.5
01/30 Home Michigan +2.5 L by 12 -9.5
02/04 Away Minnesota -8.5 L by 3 -11.5
02/07 Home Illinois -1.0 W by 3 +2.0
02/13 Away Wisconsin -2.0 L by 21 -23.0
02/17 Home UCLA -8.0 W by 23 +15.0
02/22 Home Ohio St -10.5 W by 6 -4.5
02/26 Away Purdue +6.5 W by 2 +8.5
03/01 Away Indiana -2.5 W by 13 +10.5
03/05 Home Rutgers -19.5 W by 4 -15.5
03/08 Away Michigan +10.5 L by 10 +0.5
03/13 Neutral UCLA -5.5 L by 4 -9.5
03/19 Neutral N Dakota St -15.5 W by 25 +9.5
03/21 Neutral Louisville -5.5 W by 8 +2.5
03/27 Neutral UConn +2.5 L by 4 -1.5