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Houston at Miami: Over/Under Analysis

Saturday Feb 28, 2026 3:30 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Houston by 2.5, Total Points: 226.5

Matchup Menu: HOU @ MIA

More Games From Feb 28, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Under 226.5	Official TR Pick	52% odds to go under
Under 226.5	Decision Tree	52% odds to go under
Under 226.5	Similar Games	56% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	HOU	MIA
Season	41-46-1	47-36-0
vs Division	8-8-0	12-6-0
vs Conference	26-32-0	28-25-0
Streak	Un 2	Ov 4
Last 5	2-3-0	4-1-0
Last 10	5-5-0	8-2-0
Home	18-25-1	23-18-0
Away	23-21-0	24-18-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Houston Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/21	Away	Okla City	226.0	124-125	Over	+23.0
10/24	Home	Detroit	226.0	111-115	Push	0.0
10/27	Home	Brooklyn	225.0	137-109	Over	+21.0
10/29	Away	Toronto	234.5	139-121	Over	+25.5
11/01	Away	Boston	226.0	128-101	Over	+3.0
11/03	Home	Dallas	226.0	110-102	Under	-14.0
11/05	Away	Memphis	232.5	124-109	Over	+0.5
11/07	Away	San Antonio	224.5	110-121	Over	+6.5
11/09	Away	Milwaukee	232.5	122-115	Over	+4.5
11/12	Home	Washington	236.5	135-112	Over	+10.5
11/14	Home	Portland	236.5	140-116	Over	+19.5
11/16	Home	Orlando	224.5	117-113	Over	+5.5
11/19	Away	Cleveland	233.5	114-104	Under	-15.5
11/21	Home	Denver	234.5	109-112	Under	-13.5
11/24	Away	Phoenix	224.5	114-92	Under	-18.5
11/26	Away	Golden State	224.5	104-100	Under	-20.5
11/30	Away	Utah	233.5	129-101	Under	-3.5
12/01	Away	Utah	234.5	125-133	Over	+23.5
12/03	Home	Sacramento	230.5	121-95	Under	-14.5
12/05	Home	Phoenix	219.5	117-98	Under	-4.5
12/06	Away	Dallas	221.5	109-122	Over	+9.5
12/11	Home	LA Clippers	221.5	115-113	Over	+6.5
12/15	Away	Denver	236.5	125-128	Over	+16.5
12/18	Away	New Orleans	235.5	128-133	Over	+25.5
12/20	Away	Denver	235.5	115-101	Under	-19.5
12/21	Away	Sacramento	223.5	124-125	Over	+25.5
12/23	Away	LA Clippers	219.5	108-128	Over	+16.5
12/25	Away	LA Lakers	231.5	119-96	Under	-16.5
12/27	Home	Cleveland	232.5	117-100	Under	-15.5
12/29	Home	Indiana	223.5	126-119	Over	+21.5
01/01	Away	Brooklyn	216.5	120-96	Under	-0.5
01/03	Away	Dallas	228.5	104-110	Under	-14.5
01/05	Home	Phoenix	222.5	100-97	Under	-25.5
01/07	Away	Portland	222.5	102-103	Under	-17.5
01/09	Away	Portland	222.5	105-111	Under	-6.5
01/11	Away	Sacramento	223.5	98-111	Under	-14.5
01/13	Home	Chicago	224.5	119-113	Over	+7.5
01/15	Home	Okla City	221.5	91-111	Under	-19.5
01/16	Home	Minnesota	221.5	110-105	Under	-6.5
01/18	Home	New Orleans	232.5	119-110	Under	-3.5
01/20	Home	San Antonio	220.5	111-106	Under	-3.5
01/22	Away	Philadelphia	221.5	122-128	Over	+28.5
01/23	Away	Detroit	217.5	111-104	Under	-2.5
01/26	Home	Memphis	226.5	108-99	Under	-19.5
01/28	Home	San Antonio	219.5	99-111	Under	-9.5
01/29	Away	Atlanta	223.5	104-86	Under	-33.5
01/31	Home	Dallas	222.5	111-107	Under	-4.5
02/02	Away	Indiana	218.5	118-114	Over	+13.5
02/04	Home	Boston	211.5	93-114	Under	-4.5
02/05	Home	Charlotte	218.5	99-109	Under	-10.5
02/07	Away	Okla City	213.5	112-106	Over	+4.5
02/10	Home	LA Clippers	214.5	102-95	Under	-17.5
02/11	Home	LA Clippers	211.5	102-105	Under	-4.5
02/19	Away	Charlotte	218.5	105-101	Under	-12.5
02/21	Away	New York	220.5	106-108	Under	-6.5
02/23	Home	Utah	228.5	125-105	Over	+1.5
02/25	Home	Sacramento	222.5	128-97	Over	+2.5
02/26	Away	Orlando	214.5	113-108	Over	+6.5
02/28	Away	Miami	226.5	105-115	Under	-6.5
03/02	Away	Washington	225.5	123-118	Over	+15.5
03/05	Home	Golden State	214.5	113-115	Over	+13.5
03/06	Home	Portland	221.5	106-99	Under	-16.5
03/08	Away	San Antonio	222.5	120-145	Over	+42.5
03/10	Home	Toronto	220.5	113-99	Under	-8.5
03/11	Away	Denver	231.5	93-129	Under	-9.5
03/13	Home	New Orleans	230.5	107-105	Under	-18.5
03/16	Home	LA Lakers	223.5	92-100	Under	-31.5
03/18	Home	LA Lakers	222.5	116-124	Over	+17.5
03/20	Home	Atlanta	226.5	117-95	Under	-14.5
03/21	Home	Miami	228.5	123-122	Over	+16.5
03/23	Away	Chicago	232.5	124-132	Over	+23.5
03/25	Away	Minnesota	223.5	108-110	Under	-5.5
03/27	Away	Memphis	227.5	119-109	Over	+0.5
03/29	Away	New Orleans	226.5	134-102	Over	+9.5
03/31	Home	New York	217.5	111-94	Under	-12.5
04/01	Home	Milwaukee	215.5	119-113	Over	+16.5
04/03	Home	Utah	233.5	140-106	Over	+12.5
04/05	Away	Golden State	226.5	117-116	Over	+6.5
04/07	Away	Phoenix	220.5	119-105	Over	+3.5
04/09	Home	Philadelphia	226.5	113-102	Under	-11.5
04/10	Home	Minnesota	227.5	132-136	Over	+40.5
04/12	Home	Memphis	230.5	132-101	Over	+2.5
04/18	Away	LA Lakers	207.5	98-107	Under	-2.5
04/21	Away	LA Lakers	209.5	94-101	Under	-14.5
04/24	Home	LA Lakers	206.5	108-112	Over	+13.5
04/26	Home	LA Lakers	206.5	115-96	Over	+4.5
04/29	Away	LA Lakers	209.5	99-93	Under	-17.5
05/01	Home	LA Lakers	204.5	78-98	Under	-28.5

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5