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Merrimack at Tarleton St: Over/Under Analysis

Tuesday Nov 11, 2025 8:00 pm - Stephenville, TX
Odds: Tarleton State by 5, Total Points: 142.5

Matchup Menu: MW @ TST

More Games From Nov 11, 2025

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 142.5	Official TR Pick	59% odds to go over
Over 142.5	Decision Tree	59% odds to go over
Under 142.5	Similar Games	52% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MW	TST
Season	12-22-0	15-13-0
vs Division	0-0-0	0-0-0
vs Conference	8-15-0	9-10-0
Streak	Un 3	Ov 1
Last 5	1-4-0	4-1-0
Last 10	4-6-0	5-5-0
Home	5-6-0	6-6-0
Away	7-16-0	9-7-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Merrimack Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Neutral	S Dakota St	144.5	66-75	Under	-3.5
11/06	Away	Auburn	147.0	57-95	Over	+5.0
11/11	Away	Tarleton St	142.5	62-76	Under	-4.5
11/15	Away	Boston U	135.5	91-79	Over	+34.5
11/19	Home	Maine	130.5	72-65	Over	+6.5
11/21	Away	Florida	158.5	45-80	Under	-33.5
11/28	Away	Penn	152.5	65-77	Under	-10.5
11/29	Neutral	Hofstra	135.5	58-78	Over	+0.5
11/30	Neutral	La Salle	132.0	66-60	Under	-6.0
12/04	Home	Rider	139.0	68-66	Under	-5.0
12/07	Home	Fairfield	145.0	74-63	Under	-8.0
12/10	Away	Princeton	135.0	59-56	Under	-20.0
12/14	Away	Vermont	135.5	59-66	Under	-10.5
12/29	Away	Sacred Heart	144.5	80-72	Over	+7.5
01/02	Home	Mt St Mary's	141.0	75-65	Under	-1.0
01/04	Home	Manhattan	148.5	73-66	Under	-9.5
01/09	Away	Siena	133.5	63-59	Under	-11.5
01/11	Away	Saint Peter's	133.5	63-76	Over	+5.5
01/17	Home	Quinnipiac	142.0	83-71	Over	+12.0
01/19	Away	Marist	133.0	68-55	Under	-10.0
01/22	Away	Iona	141.0	60-61	Under	-20.0
01/24	Home	Saint Peter's	133.5	67-59	Under	-7.5
02/01	Home	Sacred Heart	145.5	75-58	Under	-12.5
02/05	Away	Mt St Mary's	135.5	87-70	Over	+21.5
02/07	Away	Rider	137.0	73-47	Under	-17.0
02/12	Home	Marist	128.5	81-56	Over	+8.5
02/15	Away	Quinnipiac	141.5	56-49	Under	-36.5
02/20	Home	Siena	133.5	79-72	Over	+17.5
02/22	Home	Iona	136.5	88-86	Over	+37.5
02/27	Away	Canisius	129.5	62-67	Under	-0.5
03/01	Away	Niagara	126.5	73-66	Over	+12.5
03/06	Neutral	Sacred Heart	143.5	70-48	Under	-25.5
03/08	Neutral	Marist	128.5	58-57	Under	-13.5
03/10	Neutral	Siena	128.5	54-64	Under	-10.5

Tarleton St Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Away	SMU	145.0	76-96	Over	+27.0
11/05	Away	LSU	149.5	60-96	Over	+6.5
11/08	Home	Texas A&M-CC	142.0	85-77	Over	+20.0
11/11	Home	Merrimack	142.5	76-62	Under	-4.5
11/14	Away	Baylor	149.5	81-94	Over	+25.5
11/17	Home	Angelo State	--	77-54	Under	--
11/20	Away	Rice	145.5	90-74	Over	+18.5
11/28	Home	Midwestern St.	--	67-57	Under	--
12/01	Away	Cincinnati	143.0	58-76	Under	-9.0
12/03	Home	Howard Payne	--	119-54	Under	--
12/07	Home	Cameron	--	93-63	Under	--
12/16	Away	Miss Valley St	142.5	88-64	Over	+9.5
12/19	Home	Florida A&M	145.5	78-54	Under	-13.5
12/29	Away	UT Arlington	136.5	69-63	Under	-4.5
01/01	Home	Utah Valley	144.0	85-91	Over	+32.0
01/03	Home	Cal Baptist	148.0	81-76	Over	+9.0
01/08	Home	Abl Christian	140.5	80-84	Over	+23.5
01/15	Away	S Utah	151.0	105-106	Over	+60.0
01/17	Away	Utah Tech	151.0	71-75	Under	-5.0
01/21	Away	UT Arlington	142.5	64-71	Under	-7.5
01/29	Home	Utah Valley	154.5	55-83	Under	-16.5
01/31	Home	Utah Tech	149.5	59-65	Under	-25.5
02/05	Away	Cal Baptist	139.5	55-56	Under	-28.5
02/07	Away	S Utah	148.0	62-59	Under	-27.0
02/14	Away	Abl Christian	136.0	59-73	Under	-4.0
02/16	Home	Abl Christian	134.0	65-62	Under	-7.0
02/19	Home	S Utah	145.0	78-74	Over	+7.0
02/21	Home	Utah Tech	140.5	72-80	Over	+11.5
02/26	Away	Utah Valley	141.5	72-79	Over	+9.5
02/28	Away	Cal Baptist	138.5	67-82	Over	+10.5
03/05	Home	UT Arlington	136.5	60-65	Under	-11.5
03/11	Neutral	Abl Christian	133.5	78-84	Over	+28.5