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Mississippi St at LSU: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jan 28, 2026 7:00 pm - Baton Rouge, LA
Odds: Louisiana State by 7, Total Points: 154.5

Matchup Menu: MSST @ LSU

More Games From Jan 28, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSST LSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting MSST LSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 64.0
Field Goal % 44.6% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 33.9%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 23.4
Free Throw % 64.1% 75.8%
Ball Control MSST LSU
Rebounds 38.0 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 11.3
Turnovers 9.1 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 4.1
Steals 5.3 5.5
Fouls 14.4 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSST LSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with MSST LSU
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 25.9%
Player Fouled 20.7% 19.3%
Turnover 12.1% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSST LSU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 29.8%