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Memphis at Miami: Over/Under Analysis

Saturday Feb 21, 2026 8:00 pm - Miami, FL
Odds: Miami by 11.5, Total Points: 238.5

Matchup Menu: MEM @ MIA

More Games From Feb 21, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 238.5	Official TR Pick	51% odds to go over
Over 238.5	Decision Tree	51% odds to go over
Over 238.5	Similar Games	52% odds to go over

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MEM	MIA
Season	43-39-0	47-36-0
vs Division	7-9-0	12-6-0
vs Conference	26-26-0	28-25-0
Streak	Ov 5	Ov 4
Last 5	5-0-0	4-1-0
Last 10	9-1-0	8-2-0
Home	22-18-0	23-18-0
Away	21-21-0	24-18-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Memphis Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Home	New Orleans	236.5	128-122	Over	+13.5
10/24	Home	Miami	232.5	114-146	Over	+27.5
10/25	Home	Indiana	240.5	128-103	Under	-9.5
10/27	Away	Golden State	240.0	118-131	Over	+9.0
10/29	Away	Phoenix	242.0	114-113	Under	-15.0
10/31	Home	LA Lakers	237.5	112-117	Under	-8.5
11/02	Away	Toronto	238.5	104-117	Under	-17.5
11/03	Home	Detroit	236.0	106-114	Under	-16.0
11/05	Home	Houston	232.5	109-124	Over	+0.5
11/07	Home	Dallas	232.5	118-104	Under	-10.5
11/09	Home	Okla City	231.5	100-114	Under	-17.5
11/11	Away	New York	232.5	120-133	Over	+20.5
11/12	Away	Boston	227.5	95-131	Under	-1.5
11/15	Away	Cleveland	241.5	100-108	Under	-33.5
11/18	Away	San Antonio	233.5	101-111	Under	-21.5
11/20	Home	Sacramento	234.5	137-96	Under	-1.5
11/22	Away	Dallas	229.5	102-96	Under	-31.5
11/24	Home	Denver	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
11/26	Away	New Orleans	236.5	133-128	Over	+24.5
11/28	Away	LA Clippers	224.5	112-107	Under	-5.5
11/30	Away	Sacramento	233.5	115-107	Under	-11.5
12/02	Away	San Antonio	231.5	119-126	Over	+13.5
12/05	Home	LA Clippers	223.5	107-98	Under	-18.5
12/07	Home	Portland	232.5	119-96	Under	-17.5
12/12	Home	Utah	243.5	126-130	Over	+12.5
12/15	Away	LA Clippers	228.5	121-103	Under	-4.5
12/17	Away	Minnesota	227.5	116-110	Under	-1.5
12/20	Home	Washington	233.5	122-130	Over	+18.5
12/22	Away	Okla City	234.5	103-119	Under	-12.5
12/23	Away	Utah	242.5	137-128	Over	+22.5
12/26	Home	Milwaukee	227.5	125-104	Over	+1.5
12/28	Away	Washington	241.5	112-116	Under	-13.5
12/30	Home	Philadelphia	235.5	136-139	Over	+39.5
01/02	Away	LA Lakers	241.5	121-128	Over	+7.5
01/04	Away	LA Lakers	239.5	114-120	Under	-5.5
01/06	Home	San Antonio	237.5	106-105	Under	-26.5
01/07	Home	Phoenix	231.5	98-117	Under	-16.5
01/09	Home	Okla City	229.5	116-117	Over	+3.5
01/11	Home	Brooklyn	220.5	103-98	Under	-19.5
01/15	Neutral	Orlando	227.5	111-118	Over	+1.5
01/18	Neutral	Orlando	229.5	126-109	Over	+5.5
01/21	Home	Atlanta	239.5	122-124	Over	+6.5
01/23	Home	New Orleans	240.5	127-133	Over	+19.5
01/26	Away	Houston	226.5	99-108	Under	-19.5
01/28	Home	Charlotte	230.5	97-112	Under	-21.5
01/30	Away	New Orleans	231.5	106-114	Under	-11.5
01/31	Home	Minnesota	229.5	114-131	Over	+15.5
02/02	Home	Minnesota	232.5	137-128	Over	+32.5
02/04	Away	Sacramento	235.5	129-125	Over	+18.5
02/06	Away	Portland	235.5	115-135	Over	+14.5
02/07	Away	Portland	229.5	115-122	Over	+7.5
02/09	Away	Golden State	219.5	113-114	Over	+7.5
02/11	Away	Denver	238.5	116-122	Under	-0.5
02/20	Home	Utah	237.5	123-114	Under	-0.5
02/21	Away	Miami	238.5	120-136	Over	+17.5
02/23	Home	Sacramento	232.5	114-123	Over	+4.5
02/25	Home	Golden State	226.5	112-133	Over	+18.5
02/27	Away	Dallas	241.5	124-105	Under	-12.5
03/01	Away	Indiana	236.5	125-106	Under	-5.5
03/03	Away	Minnesota	237.5	110-117	Under	-10.5
03/04	Home	Portland	231.5	114-122	Over	+4.5
03/07	Home	LA Clippers	229.5	120-123	Over	+13.5
03/09	Away	Brooklyn	220.5	115-126	Over	+20.5
03/10	Away	Philadelphia	228.5	129-139	Over	+39.5
03/12	Home	Dallas	239.5	112-120	Under	-7.5
03/13	Away	Detroit	233.5	110-126	Over	+2.5
03/16	Away	Chicago	243.5	107-132	Under	-4.5
03/18	Home	Denver	247.5	125-118	Under	-4.5
03/20	Home	Boston	230.5	112-117	Under	-1.5
03/21	Away	Charlotte	232.5	101-124	Under	-7.5
03/23	Away	Atlanta	239.5	107-146	Over	+13.5
03/25	Home	San Antonio	234.5	98-123	Under	-13.5
03/27	Home	Houston	227.5	109-119	Over	+0.5
03/28	Home	Chicago	248.5	125-124	Over	+0.5
03/30	Home	Phoenix	227.5	105-131	Over	+8.5
04/01	Home	New York	225.5	119-130	Over	+23.5
04/03	Home	Toronto	233.5	96-128	Under	-9.5
04/05	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	115-131	Over	+17.5
04/06	Home	Cleveland	230.5	126-142	Over	+37.5
04/08	Away	Denver	247.5	119-136	Over	+7.5
04/10	Away	Utah	247.5	101-147	Over	+0.5
04/12	Away	Houston	230.5	101-132	Over	+2.5

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5