Dallas at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Monday Sep 21, 2026 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: N/A, Total Points: N/A

Matchup Menu: DAL @ PHX

More Games From Sep 21, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL PHX
Points 88.9 82.6
Total Points   171.5
Points From 2-Pointers 47.9 44.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 20.8
Points From Free Throws 13.7 17.2
Shooting DAL PHX
Field Goals Made 33.1 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 70.5 65.1
Field Goal % 46.9% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 24.0 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 42.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.5 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 13.7 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.1 22.3
Free Throw % 80.2% 77.4%
Ball Control DAL PHX
Rebounds 40.4 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 31.3 30.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 7.1
Turnovers 10.8 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.5 2.6
Steals 5.9 5.3
Fouls 19.3 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL PHX
Total Possessions 82.7
Effective Scoring Chances 80.9 78.1
% of Possessions with DAL PHX
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 24.6%
Player Fouled 19.3% 23.4%
Turnover 13.0% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL PHX
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 18.6%