Dallas at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Aug 9, 2026 3:30 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 7.5, Total Points: 178.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ MIN

More Games From Aug 9, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIN
Points 85.8 90.9
Total Points   176.7
Points From 2-Pointers 46.5 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 26.9
Points From Free Throws 13.7 13.5
Shooting DAL MIN
Field Goals Made 31.8 34.2
Field Goals Attempted 71.4 72.1
Field Goal % 44.5% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 23.2 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.8 48.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 23.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.5% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 13.7 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 16.5
Free Throw % 80.4% 81.6%
Ball Control DAL MIN
Rebounds 40.1 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 29.0 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 10.4
Turnovers 11.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.9
Steals 5.6 6.3
Fouls 13.6 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIN
Total Possessions 82.5
Effective Scoring Chances 81.8 82.2
% of Possessions with DAL MIN
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 24.7%
Player Fouled 18.3% 16.5%
Turnover 14.4% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIN
Shot Blocked 5.5% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 26.3%