Dallas at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jun 9, 2026 8:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 4.5, Total Points: 170.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ MIN

More Games From Jun 9, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIN
Points 86.3 91.3
Total Points   177.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.7 52.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.5 24.7
Points From Free Throws 13.2 14.0
Shooting DAL MIN
Field Goals Made 32.0 34.5
Field Goals Attempted 72.7 72.9
Field Goal % 44.0% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.6 51.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 13.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.4 17.1
Free Throw % 80.1% 81.5%
Ball Control DAL MIN
Rebounds 39.9 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 31.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 10.7
Turnovers 11.7 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.2
Steals 5.8 5.9
Fouls 14.2 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIN
Total Possessions 83.6
Effective Scoring Chances 82.6 83.4
% of Possessions with DAL MIN
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 54.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 22.0%
Player Fouled 18.0% 17.0%
Turnover 14.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIN
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 26.7%