Dallas at Portland: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jul 22, 2026 10:00 pm - Portland, OR
Odds: Dallas by 6.5, Total Points: 176.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ PDX

More Games From Jul 22, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL PDX
Points 93.3 86.4
Total Points   179.7
Points From 2-Pointers 50.2 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.6 30.1
Points From Free Throws 17.5 14.0
Shooting DAL PDX
Field Goals Made 33.6 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 68.5 69.6
Field Goal % 49.1% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 25.1 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 44.4 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 52.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.1 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 17.5 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 17.4
Free Throw % 80.0% 80.4%
Ball Control DAL PDX
Rebounds 41.2 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 30.6 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.3
Turnovers 11.3 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 2.9
Steals 6.4 5.5
Fouls 15.8 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL PDX
Total Possessions 82.6
Effective Scoring Chances 82.0 79.8
% of Possessions with DAL PDX
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 31.6%
Player Fouled 22.3% 19.1%
Turnover 13.7% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL PDX
Shot Blocked 4.3% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 23.3%