Dallas at Las Vegas: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jun 25, 2026 10:00 pm - Paradise, NV
Odds: Las Vegas by 5.5, Total Points: 178.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ LVA

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL LVA
Points 84.8 88.3
Total Points   173.2
Points From 2-Pointers 46.2 48.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 23.6
Points From Free Throws 14.1 15.9
Shooting DAL LVA
Field Goals Made 31.3 32.3
Field Goals Attempted 71.1 69.6
Field Goal % 44.0% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 23.1 24.4
2 Pointers Attempted 48.1 46.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 14.1 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 19.5
Free Throw % 80.1% 81.7%
Ball Control DAL LVA
Rebounds 40.2 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 30.4 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 8.8
Turnovers 11.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 2.4 3.8
Steals 6.0 5.4
Fouls 17.0 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL LVA
Total Possessions 82.8
Effective Scoring Chances 81.5 81.4
% of Possessions with DAL LVA
2 Point Attempt 51.2% 50.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.4% 25.0%
Player Fouled 18.1% 20.5%
Turnover 13.3% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL LVA
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 22.3%