Golden State at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jul 8, 2026 7:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Golden State by 8.5, Total Points: 165.5

Matchup Menu: GSV @ TOR

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSV TOR
Points 91.2 79.3
Total Points   170.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 28.6
Points From Free Throws 16.7 16.6
Shooting GSV TOR
Field Goals Made 31.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 70.7 63.2
Field Goal % 44.2% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.3 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 36.4
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 33.6 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 16.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 20.6
Free Throw % 77.9% 80.6%
Ball Control GSV TOR
Rebounds 42.6 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.2 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 9.3
Turnovers 9.6 14.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.6
Steals 7.0 5.0
Fouls 17.8 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSV TOR
Total Possessions 80.4
Effective Scoring Chances 84.2 75.7
% of Possessions with GSV TOR
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 35.5% 29.4%
Player Fouled 23.2% 22.1%
Turnover 12.0% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSV TOR
Shot Blocked 4.2% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 24.1%