Toronto at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Monday Aug 10, 2026 8:00 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 15.5, Total Points: 187.5

Matchup Menu: TOR @ ATL

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR ATL
Points 87.4 96.5
Total Points   183.9
Points From 2-Pointers 43.3 47.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 27.8
Points From Free Throws 17.5 21.4
Shooting TOR ATL
Field Goals Made 30.5 32.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 72.0
Field Goal % 47.5% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 43.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 28.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 17.5 21.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 26.9
Free Throw % 79.5% 79.4%
Ball Control TOR ATL
Rebounds 35.0 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 14.9
Turnovers 15.6 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.7
Steals 5.5 8.5
Fouls 19.9 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR ATL
Total Possessions 85.2
Effective Scoring Chances 77.6 88.7
% of Possessions with TOR ATL
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 28.2%
Player Fouled 21.7% 23.4%
Turnover 18.3% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR ATL
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 35.6%