Phoenix at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jun 27, 2026 2:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Toronto by 5.5, Total Points: 177.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ TOR

More Games From Jun 27, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX TOR
Points 88.6 87.1
Total Points   175.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.4 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 31.6
Points From Free Throws 19.6 15.8
Shooting PHX TOR
Field Goals Made 30.4 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 65.9 67.2
Field Goal % 46.1% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 10.5
3 Pointers Attempted 25.3 29.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 19.6 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.0 19.8
Free Throw % 78.4% 79.5%
Ball Control PHX TOR
Rebounds 38.6 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.5
Turnovers 11.5 13.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.9
Steals 7.0 5.8
Fouls 17.2 21.1

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX TOR
Total Possessions 83.3
Effective Scoring Chances 81.0 79.5
% of Possessions with PHX TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 39.8%
3 Point Attempt 27.0% 31.7%
Player Fouled 25.4% 20.7%
Turnover 13.8% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX TOR
Shot Blocked 4.4% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 24.4%