Minnesota at Seattle: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jul 20, 2026 10:00 pm - Seattle, WA
Odds: Minnesota by 9.5, Total Points: 174.5

Matchup Menu: MIN @ SEA

More Games From Jul 20, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIN SEA
Points 92.9 81.1
Total Points   174.1
Points From 2-Pointers 48.2 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 28.9 27.9
Points From Free Throws 15.9 14.4
Shooting MIN SEA
Field Goals Made 33.7 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 73.9 70.6
Field Goal % 45.6% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 24.1 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 47.8 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 28.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 15.9 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.7 18.3
Free Throw % 80.7% 78.9%
Ball Control MIN SEA
Rebounds 44.3 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 31.5 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 12.0
Turnovers 11.2 14.6
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.4
Steals 9.2 6.3
Fouls 14.2 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Seattle

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIN SEA
Total Possessions 84.6
Effective Scoring Chances 86.1 82.0
% of Possessions with MIN SEA
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 29.2%
Player Fouled 16.8% 16.7%
Turnover 13.3% 17.2%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIN SEA
Shot Blocked 4.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 30.4% 27.5%