Portland at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jul 14, 2026 11:00 am - Uncasville, CT
Odds: Connecticut by 2.5, Total Points: 167.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ CON

More Games From Jul 14, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX CON
Points 88.8 83.6
Total Points   172.4
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 18.7
Points From Free Throws 17.3 18.5
Shooting PDX CON
Field Goals Made 30.7 29.4
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 65.9
Field Goal % 47.6% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.6 45.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 50.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 17.3 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 25.9
Free Throw % 80.4% 71.6%
Ball Control PDX CON
Rebounds 36.9 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 28.3 27.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 12.3
Turnovers 14.6 13.5
Blocked Shots 4.0 5.0
Steals 6.8 8.0
Fouls 19.8 19.1

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX CON
Total Possessions 83.2
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 82.0
% of Possessions with PDX CON
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 21.0%
Player Fouled 23.0% 23.8%
Turnover 17.5% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 9.6% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX CON
Shot Blocked 7.8% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 30.3%