Portland at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jun 15, 2026 8:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 14.5, Total Points: 168.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ MIN

More Games From Jun 15, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX MIN
Points 84.7 97.1
Total Points   181.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.8 49.3
Points From 3-Pointers 34.0 30.7
Points From Free Throws 13.9 17.1
Shooting PDX MIN
Field Goals Made 29.8 34.9
Field Goals Attempted 68.4 69.4
Field Goal % 43.5% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.4 24.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 44.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 32.2 25.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 40.7%
Free Throws Made 13.9 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 20.9
Free Throw % 80.3% 81.6%
Ball Control PDX MIN
Rebounds 35.4 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 11.8
Turnovers 14.6 12.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.1
Steals 6.2 8.3
Fouls 16.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX MIN
Total Possessions 82.8
Effective Scoring Chances 78.9 82.6
% of Possessions with PDX MIN
2 Point Attempt 37.9% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 26.2%
Player Fouled 18.6% 19.3%
Turnover 17.6% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX MIN
Shot Blocked 7.4% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 32.4%