Portland at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jul 11, 2026 4:00 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 12.5, Total Points: 174.5

Matchup Menu: PDX @ ATL

More Games From Jul 11, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PDX ATL
Points 89.4 93.8
Total Points   183.2
Points From 2-Pointers 43.9 44.1
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 26.5
Points From Free Throws 15.4 23.2
Shooting PDX ATL
Field Goals Made 32.0 30.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.4 67.5
Field Goal % 49.6% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 22.0 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.2 40.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.1% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.3 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 15.4 23.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 29.2
Free Throw % 80.4% 79.4%
Ball Control PDX ATL
Rebounds 32.9 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.8 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 14.0
Turnovers 15.6 12.9
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.0
Steals 6.1 8.7
Fouls 20.7 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PDX ATL
Total Possessions 84.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.9 85.6
% of Possessions with PDX ATL
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 27.0%
Player Fouled 20.6% 24.5%
Turnover 18.5% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PDX ATL
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 35.1%