Indiana at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Aug 2, 2026 1:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 5.5, Total Points: 191.5

Matchup Menu: IND @ MIN

More Games From Aug 2, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MIN
Points 93.3 96.0
Total Points   189.3
Points From 2-Pointers 43.4 54.0
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 26.2
Points From Free Throws 17.2 15.8
Shooting IND MIN
Field Goals Made 32.6 35.7
Field Goals Attempted 69.3 73.8
Field Goal % 47.1% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.8 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 52.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.5 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 39.8%
Free Throws Made 17.2 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 19.5
Free Throw % 81.5% 81.2%
Ball Control IND MIN
Rebounds 39.6 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 11.3
Turnovers 14.7 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.7
Steals 5.8 7.8
Fouls 15.6 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MIN
Total Possessions 85.9
Effective Scoring Chances 82.2 85.8
% of Possessions with IND MIN
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 52.7%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 22.3%
Player Fouled 21.6% 18.2%
Turnover 17.2% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MIN
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 28.3%