Las Vegas at Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Monday Jul 20, 2026 8:00 pm - Toronto, ON
Odds: Las Vegas by 10.5, Total Points: 182.5

Matchup Menu: LVA @ TOR

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring LVA TOR
Points 98.0 85.2
Total Points   183.1
Points From 2-Pointers 52.8 37.9
Points From 3-Pointers 27.7 30.6
Points From Free Throws 17.5 16.6
Shooting LVA TOR
Field Goals Made 35.6 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 69.2 69.0
Field Goal % 51.5% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.4 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.1 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 59.9% 45.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.2 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 27.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 17.5 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 20.5
Free Throw % 79.5% 81.3%
Ball Control LVA TOR
Rebounds 40.8 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 31.6 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.8
Turnovers 9.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 1.7
Steals 6.4 5.8
Fouls 15.9 18.8

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +1.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LVA TOR
Total Possessions 83.5
Effective Scoring Chances 82.8 81.1
% of Possessions with LVA TOR
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 29.1%
Player Fouled 22.5% 19.1%
Turnover 11.9% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LVA TOR
Shot Blocked 2.5% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 23.8%