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Tarleton St at Miss Valley St: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Dec 16, 2025 7:00 pm - Itta Bena, MS
Odds: Tarleton State by 17, Total Points: 142.5

Matchup Menu: TST @ MVSU

More Games From Dec 16, 2025

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TST MVSU
Points Subscribe to view
Total Points Subscribe to view
Points From 2-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From 3-Pointers Subscribe to view
Points From Free Throws Subscribe to view
Shooting TST MVSU
Field Goals Made Subscribe to view
Field Goals Attempted 52.0 48.2
Field Goal % 48.2% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
2 Pointers Attempted 36.9 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made Subscribe to view
3 Pointers Attempted 15.1 15.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 29.6%
Free Throws Made Subscribe to view
Free Throws Attempted 32.8 22.7
Free Throw % 73.7% 71.1%
Ball Control TST MVSU
Rebounds 35.9 27.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 20.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 7.5
Turnovers 11.9 17.5
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.4
Steals 10.1 6.2
Fouls 18.2 21.4

Playing Style Advantage: Subscribe to view

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TST MVSU
Total Possessions Subscribe to view
Effective Scoring Chances Subscribe to view
% of Possessions with TST MVSU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 19.0%
Player Fouled 29.5% 25.0%
Turnover 16.4% 24.2%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 13.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TST MVSU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 37.6% 23.8%