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Virginia at Duke: Over/Under Analysis

Saturday Feb 28, 2026 12:00 pm - Durham, NC
Odds: Duke by 9.5, Total Points: 142.5

Matchup Menu: UVA @ DUKE

More Games From Feb 28, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Under 141.5	Official TR Pick	53% odds to go under
Under 141.5	Similar Games	57% odds to go under
Under 141.5	Decision Tree	53% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	UVA	DUKE
Season	17-19-0	14-24-0
vs Division	0-0-0	0-0-0
vs Conference	9-12-0	9-12-0
Streak	Ov 6	Ov 2
Last 5	5-0-0	3-2-0
Last 10	7-3-0	5-5-0
Home	6-11-0	5-10-0
Away	11-8-0	9-14-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Virginia Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/03	Home	Rider	147.5	87-53	Under	-7.5
11/07	Home	NC Central	153.0	81-62	Under	-10.0
11/11	Home	Hampton	148.5	91-53	Under	-4.5
11/15	Home	Marshall	155.5	104-78	Over	+26.5
11/21	Neutral	Northwestern	149.5	83-78	Over	+11.5
11/23	Neutral	Butler	155.5	73-80	Under	-2.5
11/28	Home	Queens	159.0	94-69	Over	+4.0
12/03	Away	Texas	154.5	88-69	Over	+2.5
12/06	Neutral	Dayton	147.5	86-73	Over	+11.5
12/09	Home	Maryland ES	134.5	84-60	Over	+9.5
12/20	Home	Maryland	153.5	80-72	Under	-1.5
12/22	Home	American	154.0	95-51	Under	-8.0
12/31	Away	Virginia Tech	153.5	85-95	Over	+26.5
01/03	Away	NC State	151.5	76-61	Under	-14.5
01/07	Home	California	148.0	84-60	Under	-4.0
01/10	Home	Stanford	143.5	70-55	Under	-18.5
01/13	Away	Louisville	155.0	79-70	Under	-6.0
01/17	Away	SMU	153.0	72-68	Under	-13.0
01/24	Home	North Carolina	148.5	80-85	Over	+16.5
01/27	Away	Notre Dame	146.0	100-97	Over	+51.0
01/31	Away	Boston College	139.5	73-66	Under	-0.5
02/03	Home	Pittsburgh	142.5	67-47	Under	-28.5
02/07	Home	Syracuse	147.5	72-59	Under	-16.5
02/10	Away	Florida St	156.0	61-58	Under	-37.0
02/14	Neutral	Ohio St	146.5	70-66	Under	-10.5
02/18	Away	Georgia Tech	149.0	94-68	Over	+13.0
02/21	Home	Miami	146.5	86-83	Over	+22.5
02/24	Home	NC State	152.5	90-61	Under	-1.5
02/28	Away	Duke	142.5	51-77	Under	-14.5
03/03	Home	Wake Forest	150.5	75-70	Under	-5.5
03/07	Home	Virginia Tech	146.5	76-72	Over	+1.5
03/12	Neutral	NC State	153.5	81-74	Over	+1.5
03/13	Neutral	Miami	145.5	84-62	Over	+0.5
03/14	Neutral	Duke	139.5	70-74	Over	+4.5
03/20	Neutral	Wright St	146.5	82-73	Over	+8.5
03/22	Neutral	Tennessee	137.5	72-79	Over	+13.5

Duke Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
11/04	Neutral	Texas	154.0	75-60	Under	-19.0
11/08	Home	W Carolina	153.0	95-54	Under	-4.0
11/11	Away	Army	153.5	114-59	Over	+19.5
11/14	Home	Indiana St	163.5	100-62	Under	-1.5
11/18	Neutral	Kansas	148.5	78-66	Under	-4.5
11/21	Home	Niagara	145.0	100-42	Under	-3.0
11/23	Home	Howard	151.0	93-56	Under	-2.0
11/27	Neutral	Arkansas	160.0	80-71	Under	-9.0
12/02	Home	Florida	157.5	67-66	Under	-24.5
12/06	Away	Michigan St	141.5	66-60	Under	-15.5
12/16	Home	Lipscomb	152.0	97-73	Over	+18.0
12/20	Neutral	Texas Tech	152.5	81-82	Over	+10.5
12/31	Home	Georgia Tech	153.5	85-79	Over	+10.5
01/03	Away	Florida St	163.0	91-87	Over	+15.0
01/06	Away	Louisville	160.5	84-73	Under	-3.5
01/10	Home	SMU	156.0	82-75	Over	+1.0
01/14	Away	California	149.0	71-56	Under	-22.0
01/17	Away	Stanford	149.0	80-50	Under	-19.0
01/24	Home	Wake Forest	151.5	90-69	Over	+7.5
01/26	Home	Louisville	157.0	83-52	Under	-22.0
01/31	Away	Virginia Tech	148.0	72-58	Under	-18.0
02/03	Home	Boston College	141.5	67-49	Under	-25.5
02/07	Away	North Carolina	151.5	68-71	Under	-12.5
02/10	Away	Pittsburgh	136.5	70-54	Under	-12.5
02/14	Home	Clemson	134.0	67-54	Under	-13.0
02/16	Home	Syracuse	145.0	101-64	Over	+20.0
02/21	Neutral	Michigan	150.5	68-63	Under	-19.5
02/24	Away	Notre Dame	142.5	100-56	Over	+13.5
02/28	Home	Virginia	142.5	77-51	Under	-14.5
03/02	Away	NC State	150.5	93-64	Over	+6.5
03/07	Home	North Carolina	147.5	76-61	Under	-10.5
03/12	Neutral	Florida St	150.5	80-79	Over	+8.5
03/13	Neutral	Clemson	134.5	73-61	Under	-0.5
03/14	Neutral	Virginia	139.5	74-70	Over	+4.5
03/19	Neutral	Siena	137.5	71-65	Under	-1.5
03/21	Neutral	TCU	141.5	81-58	Under	-2.5
03/27	Neutral	St John's	140.5	80-75	Over	+14.5
03/29	Neutral	UConn	135.5	72-73	Over	+9.5