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Virginia at Duke: Point Spread Analysis

Saturday Feb 28, 2026 12:00 pm - Durham, NC
Odds: Duke by 9.5, Total Points: 142.5

Matchup Menu: UVA @ DUKE

More Games From Feb 28, 2026

ATS Predictions

Pick Model Confidence
Duke -9.5 Official TR Pick Duke 52% odds to cover
Duke -9.5 Decision Tree Duke 52% odds to cover
Duke -9.5 Predictive Ratings Duke 60% odds to cover
Virginia +9.5 Power Rating Model Virginia 57% odds to cover
Virginia +9.5 Similar Games Virginia 54% odds to cover

ATS Situational Trends

Record UVA adv DUKE
Season 17-17-2 20-18-0
vs Division 0-0-0 0-0-0
vs Conference 11-10-0 11-10-0
Streak L2 L2
Last 5 3-2-0 1-4-0
Last 10 4-6-0 4-6-0
Home 8-8-1 7-8-0
Away 9-9-1 13-10-0

Virginia Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/03 Home Rider -26.5 W by 34 +7.5
11/07 Home NC Central -34.0 W by 19 -15.0
11/11 Home Hampton -24.0 W by 38 +14.0
11/15 Home Marshall -20.5 W by 26 +5.5
11/21 Neutral Northwestern -5.0 W by 5 0.0
11/23 Neutral Butler -7.0 L by 7 -14.0
11/28 Home Queens -25.0 W by 25 0.0
12/03 Away Texas +3.0 W by 19 +22.0
12/06 Neutral Dayton -4.5 W by 13 +8.5
12/09 Home Maryland ES -36.5 W by 24 -12.5
12/20 Home Maryland -16.5 W by 8 -8.5
12/22 Home American -27.5 W by 44 +16.5
12/31 Away Virginia Tech -6.0 L by 10 -16.0
01/03 Away NC State +4.0 W by 15 +19.0
01/07 Home California -14.0 W by 24 +10.0
01/10 Home Stanford -12.5 W by 15 +2.5
01/13 Away Louisville +4.5 W by 9 +13.5
01/17 Away SMU -2.0 W by 4 +2.0
01/24 Home North Carolina -6.5 L by 5 -11.5
01/27 Away Notre Dame -9.5 W by 3 -6.5
01/31 Away Boston College -12.5 W by 7 -5.5
02/03 Home Pittsburgh -12.5 W by 20 +7.5
02/07 Home Syracuse -14.0 W by 13 -1.0
02/10 Away Florida St -8.0 W by 3 -5.0
02/14 Neutral Ohio St -5.0 W by 4 -1.0
02/18 Away Georgia Tech -13.0 W by 26 +13.0
02/21 Home Miami -7.5 W by 3 -4.5
02/24 Home NC State -6.5 W by 29 +22.5
02/28 Away Duke +9.5 L by 26 -16.5
03/03 Home Wake Forest -14.5 W by 5 -9.5
03/07 Home Virginia Tech -11.5 W by 4 -7.5
03/12 Neutral NC State -6.5 W by 7 +0.5
03/13 Neutral Miami -3.5 W by 22 +18.5
03/14 Neutral Duke +6.5 L by 4 +2.5
03/20 Neutral Wright St -17.5 W by 9 -8.5
03/22 Neutral Tennessee +1.5 L by 7 -5.5

Duke Detailed ATS Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Line Result +/-
11/04 Neutral Texas -10.5 W by 15 +4.5
11/08 Home W Carolina -37.0 W by 41 +4.0
11/11 Away Army -34.5 W by 55 +20.5
11/14 Home Indiana St -36.5 W by 38 +1.5
11/18 Neutral Kansas -11.0 W by 12 +1.0
11/21 Home Niagara -39.5 W by 58 +18.5
11/23 Home Howard -43.5 W by 37 -6.5
11/27 Neutral Arkansas -12.5 W by 9 -3.5
12/02 Home Florida -9.5 W by 1 -8.5
12/06 Away Michigan St -1.0 W by 6 +5.0
12/16 Home Lipscomb -32.0 W by 24 -8.0
12/20 Neutral Texas Tech -10.0 L by 1 -11.0
12/31 Home Georgia Tech -27.5 W by 6 -21.5
01/03 Away Florida St -16.5 W by 4 -12.5
01/06 Away Louisville (Pick) W by 11 +11.0
01/10 Home SMU -16.0 W by 7 -9.0
01/14 Away California -14.0 W by 15 +1.0
01/17 Away Stanford -11.0 W by 30 +19.0
01/24 Home Wake Forest -18.0 W by 21 +3.0
01/26 Home Louisville -8.5 W by 31 +22.5
01/31 Away Virginia Tech -12.0 W by 14 +2.0
02/03 Home Boston College -27.0 W by 18 -9.0
02/07 Away North Carolina -6.0 L by 3 -9.0
02/10 Away Pittsburgh -18.0 W by 16 -2.0
02/14 Home Clemson -13.5 W by 13 -0.5
02/16 Home Syracuse -20.5 W by 37 +16.5
02/21 Neutral Michigan +2.5 W by 5 +7.5
02/24 Away Notre Dame -16.5 W by 44 +27.5
02/28 Home Virginia -9.5 W by 26 +16.5
03/02 Away NC State -9.5 W by 29 +19.5
03/07 Home North Carolina -18.5 W by 15 -3.5
03/12 Neutral Florida St -16.5 W by 1 -15.5
03/13 Neutral Clemson -10.5 W by 12 +1.5
03/14 Neutral Virginia -6.5 W by 4 -2.5
03/19 Neutral Siena -28.5 W by 6 -22.5
03/21 Neutral TCU -12.5 W by 23 +10.5
03/27 Neutral St John's -6.5 W by 5 -1.5
03/29 Neutral UConn -4.5 L by 1 -5.5