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Miami at Minnesota: Over/Under Analysis

Tuesday Jan 6, 2026 8:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 5.5, Total Points: 238.5

Matchup Menu: MIA @ MIN

More Games From Jan 6, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 238.5	Official TR Pick	50% odds to go over
Over 238.5	Decision Tree	50% odds to go over
Under 238.5	Similar Games	52% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MIA	MIN
Season	47-36-0	43-51-0
vs Division	12-6-0	10-12-0
vs Conference	28-25-0	29-35-0
Streak	Ov 4	Ov 5
Last 5	4-1-0	5-0-0
Last 10	8-2-0	6-4-0
Home	23-18-0	17-30-0
Away	24-18-0	26-21-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5

Minnesota Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Portland	222.0	118-114	Over	+10.0
10/24	Away	LA Lakers	226.0	110-128	Over	+12.0
10/26	Home	Indiana	228.5	114-110	Under	-4.5
10/27	Home	Denver	229.5	114-127	Over	+11.5
10/29	Home	LA Lakers	224.5	115-116	Over	+6.5
11/01	Away	Charlotte	235.0	122-105	Under	-8.0
11/03	Away	Brooklyn	226.0	125-109	Over	+8.0
11/05	Away	New York	228.5	114-137	Over	+22.5
11/07	Home	Utah	233.5	137-97	Over	+0.5
11/09	Away	Sacramento	238.5	144-117	Over	+22.5
11/10	Away	Utah	234.5	120-113	Under	-1.5
11/14	Home	Sacramento	240.5	124-110	Under	-6.5
11/15	Home	Denver	236.5	112-123	Under	-1.5
11/17	Home	Dallas	232.5	120-96	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Washington	239.5	120-109	Under	-10.5
11/21	Away	Phoenix	230.5	113-114	Under	-3.5
11/24	Away	Sacramento	238.5	112-117	Under	-9.5
11/26	Away	Okla City	226.5	105-113	Under	-8.5
11/29	Home	Boston	228.5	119-115	Over	+5.5
11/30	Home	San Antonio	233.5	125-112	Over	+3.5
12/02	Away	New Orleans	229.5	149-142	Over	+61.5
12/04	Away	New Orleans	233.5	125-116	Over	+7.5
12/06	Home	LA Clippers	228.5	109-106	Under	-13.5
12/08	Home	Phoenix	226.5	105-108	Under	-13.5
12/12	Away	Golden State	227.5	127-120	Over	+19.5
12/14	Home	Sacramento	235.5	117-103	Under	-15.5
12/17	Home	Memphis	227.5	110-116	Under	-1.5
12/19	Home	Okla City	232.5	112-107	Under	-13.5
12/21	Home	Milwaukee	226.5	103-100	Under	-23.5
12/23	Home	New York	229.5	115-104	Under	-10.5
12/25	Away	Denver	238.5	138-142	Over	+41.5
12/27	Home	Brooklyn	223.5	107-123	Over	+6.5
12/29	Away	Chicago	243.5	136-101	Under	-6.5
12/31	Away	Atlanta	239.5	102-126	Under	-11.5
01/03	Away	Miami	235.5	125-115	Over	+4.5
01/04	Away	Washington	239.5	141-115	Over	+16.5
01/06	Home	Miami	238.5	122-94	Under	-22.5
01/08	Home	Cleveland	239.5	131-122	Over	+13.5
01/10	Away	Cleveland	240.5	134-146	Over	+39.5
01/11	Home	San Antonio	232.5	104-103	Under	-25.5
01/13	Away	Milwaukee	229.5	139-106	Over	+15.5
01/16	Away	Houston	221.5	105-110	Under	-6.5
01/17	Away	San Antonio	234.5	123-126	Over	+14.5
01/20	Away	Utah	238.5	122-127	Over	+10.5
01/22	Home	Chicago	239.5	115-120	Under	-4.5
01/25	Home	Golden State	237.5	85-111	Under	-41.5
01/26	Home	Golden State	226.5	108-83	Under	-35.5
01/28	Away	Dallas	228.5	118-105	Under	-5.5
01/29	Home	Okla City	227.5	123-111	Over	+6.5
01/31	Away	Memphis	229.5	131-114	Over	+15.5
02/02	Away	Memphis	232.5	128-137	Over	+32.5
02/04	Away	Toronto	228.5	128-126	Over	+25.5
02/06	Home	New Orleans	237.5	115-119	Under	-3.5
02/08	Home	LA Clippers	222.5	96-115	Under	-11.5
02/09	Home	Atlanta	238.5	138-116	Over	+15.5
02/11	Home	Portland	234.5	133-109	Over	+7.5
02/20	Home	Dallas	239.5	122-111	Under	-6.5
02/22	Home	Philadelphia	239.5	108-135	Over	+3.5
02/24	Away	Portland	234.5	124-121	Over	+10.5
02/26	Away	LA Clippers	220.5	94-88	Under	-38.5
03/01	Away	Denver	241.5	117-108	Under	-16.5
03/03	Home	Memphis	237.5	117-110	Under	-10.5
03/05	Home	Toronto	226.5	115-107	Under	-4.5
03/07	Home	Orlando	224.5	92-119	Under	-13.5
03/10	Away	LA Lakers	229.5	106-120	Under	-3.5
03/11	Away	LA Clippers	225.5	128-153	Over	+55.5
03/13	Away	Golden State	224.5	127-117	Over	+19.5
03/15	Away	Okla City	228.5	103-116	Under	-9.5
03/17	Home	Phoenix	220.5	116-104	Under	-0.5
03/18	Home	Utah	231.5	147-111	Over	+26.5
03/20	Home	Portland	231.5	104-108	Under	-19.5
03/22	Away	Boston	222.5	102-92	Under	-28.5
03/25	Home	Houston	223.5	110-108	Under	-5.5
03/28	Home	Detroit	222.5	87-109	Under	-26.5
03/30	Away	Dallas	236.5	124-94	Under	-18.5
04/02	Away	Detroit	224.5	108-113	Under	-3.5
04/03	Away	Philadelphia	234.5	103-115	Under	-16.5
04/05	Home	Charlotte	225.5	108-122	Over	+4.5
04/07	Away	Indiana	233.5	124-104	Under	-5.5
04/08	Away	Orlando	232.5	120-132	Over	+19.5
04/10	Away	Houston	227.5	136-132	Over	+40.5
04/12	Home	New Orleans	238.5	132-126	Over	+19.5
04/18	Away	Denver	233.5	105-116	Under	-12.5
04/20	Away	Denver	233.5	119-114	Under	-0.5
04/23	Home	Denver	232.5	113-96	Under	-23.5
04/25	Home	Denver	228.5	112-96	Under	-20.5
04/27	Away	Denver	225.5	113-125	Over	+12.5
04/30	Home	Denver	223.5	110-98	Under	-15.5
05/04	Away	San Antonio	218.5	104-102	Under	-12.5
05/06	Away	San Antonio	217.5	95-133	Over	+10.5
05/08	Home	San Antonio	216.5	108-115	Over	+6.5
05/10	Home	San Antonio	218.5	114-109	Over	+4.5
05/12	Away	San Antonio	218.5	97-126	Over	+4.5
05/15	Home	San Antonio	218.5	109-139	Over	+29.5