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Miami at Phoenix: Over/Under Analysis

Sunday Jan 25, 2026 8:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 4.5, Total Points: 225.5

Matchup Menu: MIA @ PHO

More Games From Jan 25, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Over 225.5	Official TR Pick	51% odds to go over
Over 225.5	Decision Tree	51% odds to go over
Over 225.5	Similar Games	59% odds to go over

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MIA	PHO
Season	47-36-0	40-48-0
vs Division	12-6-0	6-12-0
vs Conference	28-25-0	27-31-0
Streak	Ov 4	Ov 3
Last 5	4-1-0	3-2-0
Last 10	8-2-0	6-4-0
Home	23-18-0	17-28-0
Away	24-18-0	23-20-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5

Phoenix Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Home	Sacramento	228.5	120-116	Over	+7.5
10/24	Away	LA Clippers	224.0	102-129	Over	+7.0
10/25	Away	Denver	233.5	111-133	Over	+10.5
10/27	Away	Utah	230.0	134-138	Over	+42.0
10/29	Home	Memphis	242.0	113-114	Under	-15.0
10/31	Home	Utah	238.0	118-96	Under	-24.0
11/02	Home	San Antonio	227.5	130-118	Over	+20.5
11/04	Away	Golden State	235.5	107-118	Under	-10.5
11/06	Home	LA Clippers	224.5	115-102	Under	-7.5
11/08	Away	LA Clippers	226.5	114-103	Under	-9.5
11/10	Home	New Orleans	227.5	121-98	Under	-8.5
11/12	Away	Dallas	227.5	123-114	Over	+9.5
11/13	Home	Indiana	233.5	133-98	Under	-2.5
11/16	Home	Atlanta	226.5	122-124	Over	+19.5
11/18	Away	Portland	235.5	127-110	Over	+1.5
11/21	Home	Minnesota	230.5	114-113	Under	-3.5
11/23	Home	San Antonio	234.5	111-102	Under	-21.5
11/24	Home	Houston	224.5	92-114	Under	-18.5
11/26	Away	Sacramento	233.5	112-100	Under	-21.5
11/28	Away	Okla City	223.5	119-123	Over	+18.5
11/29	Home	Denver	233.5	112-130	Over	+8.5
12/01	Away	LA Lakers	231.5	125-108	Over	+1.5
12/05	Away	Houston	219.5	98-117	Under	-4.5
12/08	Away	Minnesota	226.5	108-105	Under	-13.5
12/10	Away	Okla City	221.5	89-138	Over	+5.5
12/14	Home	LA Lakers	231.5	114-116	Under	-1.5
12/18	Home	Golden State	229.5	99-98	Under	-32.5
12/20	Away	Golden State	226.5	116-119	Over	+8.5
12/23	Home	LA Lakers	226.5	132-108	Over	+13.5
12/26	Away	New Orleans	241.5	115-108	Under	-18.5
12/27	Away	New Orleans	241.5	123-114	Under	-4.5
12/29	Away	Washington	233.5	115-101	Under	-17.5
12/31	Away	Cleveland	233.5	113-129	Over	+8.5
01/02	Home	Sacramento	223.5	129-102	Over	+7.5
01/04	Home	Okla City	229.5	108-105	Under	-16.5
01/05	Away	Houston	222.5	97-100	Under	-25.5
01/07	Away	Memphis	231.5	117-98	Under	-16.5
01/09	Home	New York	228.5	112-107	Under	-9.5
01/11	Home	Washington	229.5	112-93	Under	-24.5
01/13	Away	Miami	230.5	121-127	Over	+17.5
01/15	Away	Detroit	219.5	105-108	Under	-6.5
01/17	Away	New York	224.5	106-99	Under	-19.5
01/19	Away	Brooklyn	214.5	126-117	Over	+28.5
01/20	Away	Philadelphia	223.5	116-110	Over	+2.5
01/23	Away	Atlanta	233.5	103-110	Under	-20.5
01/25	Home	Miami	225.5	102-111	Under	-12.5
01/27	Home	Brooklyn	210.5	106-102	Under	-2.5
01/29	Home	Detroit	213.5	114-96	Under	-3.5
01/30	Home	Cleveland	222.5	126-113	Over	+16.5
02/01	Home	LA Clippers	210.5	93-117	Under	-0.5
02/03	Away	Portland	219.5	130-125	Over	+35.5
02/05	Home	Golden State	213.5	97-101	Under	-15.5
02/07	Home	Philadelphia	225.5	103-109	Under	-13.5
02/10	Home	Dallas	229.5	120-111	Over	+1.5
02/11	Home	Okla City	215.5	109-136	Over	+29.5
02/19	Away	San Antonio	229.5	94-121	Under	-14.5
02/21	Home	Orlando	218.5	113-110	Over	+4.5
02/22	Home	Portland	224.5	77-92	Under	-55.5
02/24	Home	Boston	206.5	81-97	Under	-28.5
02/26	Home	LA Lakers	223.5	113-110	Under	-0.5
03/03	Away	Sacramento	224.5	114-103	Under	-7.5
03/05	Home	Chicago	224.5	103-105	Under	-16.5
03/06	Home	New Orleans	228.5	118-116	Over	+5.5
03/08	Home	Charlotte	218.5	111-99	Under	-8.5
03/10	Away	Milwaukee	219.5	129-114	Over	+23.5
03/12	Away	Indiana	222.5	123-108	Over	+8.5
03/13	Away	Toronto	221.5	115-122	Over	+15.5
03/16	Away	Boston	216.5	112-120	Over	+15.5
03/17	Away	Minnesota	220.5	104-116	Under	-0.5
03/19	Away	San Antonio	228.5	100-101	Under	-27.5
03/21	Home	Milwaukee	218.5	105-108	Under	-5.5
03/22	Home	Toronto	219.5	120-98	Under	-1.5
03/24	Home	Denver	233.5	123-125	Over	+14.5
03/28	Home	Utah	232.5	134-109	Over	+10.5
03/30	Away	Memphis	227.5	131-105	Over	+8.5
03/31	Away	Orlando	224.5	111-115	Over	+1.5
04/02	Away	Charlotte	225.5	107-127	Over	+8.5
04/05	Away	Chicago	240.5	120-110	Under	-10.5
04/07	Home	Houston	220.5	105-119	Over	+3.5
04/08	Home	Dallas	233.5	112-107	Under	-14.5
04/10	Away	LA Lakers	216.5	73-101	Under	-42.5
04/12	Away	Okla City	212.5	135-103	Over	+25.5
04/14	Home	Portland	215.5	110-114	Over	+8.5
04/17	Home	Golden State	219.5	111-96	Under	-12.5
04/19	Away	Okla City	215.5	84-119	Under	-12.5
04/22	Away	Okla City	215.5	107-120	Over	+11.5
04/25	Home	Okla City	212.5	109-121	Over	+17.5
04/27	Home	Okla City	215.5	122-131	Over	+37.5