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Miami at Dallas: Over/Under Analysis

Wednesday Dec 3, 2025 8:30 pm - Dallas, TX
Odds: Miami by 4.5, Total Points: 238.5

Matchup Menu: MIA @ DAL

More Games From Dec 3, 2025

Over/Under Predictions

Pick	Model	Confidence
Under 238.5	Official TR Pick	52% odds to go under
Under 238.5	Decision Tree	52% odds to go under
Under 238.5	Similar Games	57% odds to go under

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record	MIA	DAL
Season	47-36-0	37-45-0
vs Division	12-6-0	4-12-0
vs Conference	28-25-0	24-27-0
Streak	Ov 4	Ov 2
Last 5	4-1-0	3-2-0
Last 10	8-2-0	5-5-0
Home	23-18-0	22-19-0
Away	24-18-0	15-26-0

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Away	Orlando	216.0	121-125	Over	+30.0
10/24	Away	Memphis	232.5	146-114	Over	+27.5
10/26	Home	New York	230.5	115-107	Under	-8.5
10/28	Home	Charlotte	241.5	144-117	Over	+19.5
10/30	Away	San Antonio	228.5	101-107	Under	-20.5
11/02	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	120-130	Over	+17.5
11/03	Away	LA Clippers	227.5	120-119	Over	+11.5
11/05	Away	Denver	242.5	112-122	Under	-8.5
11/07	Home	Charlotte	235.5	126-108	Under	-1.5
11/08	Home	Portland	241.5	136-131	Over	+25.5
11/10	Home	Cleveland	248.5	140-138	Over	+29.5
11/12	Home	Cleveland	238.5	116-130	Over	+7.5
11/14	Away	New York	240.5	132-140	Over	+31.5
11/17	Home	New York	244.5	115-113	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	Golden State	234.5	110-96	Under	-28.5
11/21	Away	Chicago	250.5	143-107	Under	-0.5
11/23	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	127-117	Over	+3.5
11/24	Home	Dallas	240.5	106-102	Under	-32.5
11/26	Home	Milwaukee	236.5	106-103	Under	-27.5
11/29	Home	Detroit	239.5	135-138	Over	+33.5
12/01	Home	LA Clippers	235.5	140-123	Over	+27.5
12/03	Away	Dallas	238.5	108-118	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Orlando	241.5	105-106	Under	-30.5
12/06	Home	Sacramento	241.5	111-127	Under	-3.5
12/09	Away	Orlando	235.5	108-117	Under	-10.5
12/15	Home	Toronto	234.5	96-106	Under	-32.5
12/18	Away	Brooklyn	228.5	106-95	Under	-27.5
12/19	Away	Boston	232.5	116-129	Over	+12.5
12/21	Away	New York	236.5	125-132	Over	+20.5
12/23	Home	Toronto	227.5	91-112	Under	-24.5
12/26	Away	Atlanta	250.5	126-111	Under	-13.5
12/27	Home	Indiana	233.5	142-116	Over	+24.5
12/29	Home	Denver	243.5	147-123	Over	+26.5
01/01	Away	Detroit	236.5	118-112	Under	-6.5
01/03	Home	Minnesota	235.5	115-125	Over	+4.5
01/04	Home	New Orleans	246.5	125-106	Under	-15.5
01/06	Away	Minnesota	238.5	94-122	Under	-22.5
01/10	Away	Indiana	235.5	99-123	Under	-13.5
01/11	Away	Okla City	234.5	112-124	Over	+1.5
01/13	Home	Phoenix	230.5	127-121	Over	+17.5
01/15	Home	Boston	235.5	114-119	Under	-2.5
01/17	Home	Okla City	234.5	122-120	Over	+7.5
01/19	Away	Golden State	239.5	112-135	Over	+7.5
01/20	Away	Sacramento	238.5	130-117	Over	+8.5
01/22	Away	Portland	235.5	110-127	Over	+1.5
01/24	Away	Utah	245.5	147-116	Over	+17.5
01/25	Away	Phoenix	225.5	111-102	Under	-12.5
01/28	Home	Orlando	233.5	124-133	Over	+23.5
01/29	Away	Chicago	238.5	116-113	Under	-9.5
01/31	Home	Chicago	231.5	118-125	Over	+11.5
02/01	Home	Chicago	233.5	134-91	Under	-8.5
02/03	Home	Atlanta	237.5	115-127	Over	+4.5
02/06	Away	Boston	227.5	96-98	Under	-33.5
02/08	Away	Washington	236.5	132-101	Under	-3.5
02/09	Home	Utah	236.5	111-115	Under	-10.5
02/11	Away	New Orleans	233.5	123-111	Over	+0.5
02/20	Away	Atlanta	244.5	128-97	Under	-19.5
02/21	Home	Memphis	238.5	136-120	Over	+17.5
02/24	Away	Milwaukee	228.5	117-128	Over	+16.5
02/26	Away	Philadelphia	240.5	117-124	Over	+0.5
02/28	Home	Houston	226.5	115-105	Under	-6.5
03/03	Home	Brooklyn	226.5	124-98	Under	-4.5
03/05	Home	Brooklyn	225.5	126-110	Over	+10.5
03/06	Away	Charlotte	230.5	128-120	Over	+17.5
03/08	Home	Detroit	231.5	121-110	Under	-0.5
03/10	Home	Washington	235.5	150-129	Over	+43.5
03/12	Home	Milwaukee	234.5	112-105	Under	-17.5
03/14	Home	Orlando	237.0	117-121	Over	+1.0
03/17	Away	Charlotte	236.5	106-136	Over	+5.5
03/19	Home	LA Lakers	242.5	126-134	Over	+17.5
03/21	Away	Houston	228.5	122-123	Over	+16.5
03/23	Home	San Antonio	244.5	111-136	Over	+2.5
03/25	Away	Cleveland	243.5	120-103	Under	-20.5
03/27	Away	Cleveland	240.5	128-149	Over	+36.5
03/29	Away	Indiana	245.5	118-135	Over	+7.5
03/30	Home	Philadelphia	243.5	119-109	Under	-15.5
04/01	Home	Boston	230.5	129-147	Over	+45.5
04/04	Home	Washington	245.5	152-136	Over	+42.5
04/07	Away	Toronto	240.5	95-121	Under	-24.5
04/09	Away	Toronto	236.5	114-128	Over	+5.5
04/10	Away	Washington	244.5	140-117	Over	+12.5
04/12	Home	Atlanta	240.5	143-117	Over	+19.5
04/14	Away	Charlotte	228.5	126-127	Over	+24.5

Dallas Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date	H/A/N	Opponent	Total	Score	Result	+/-
10/22	Home	San Antonio	224.0	92-125	Under	-7.0
10/24	Home	Washington	228.5	107-117	Under	-4.5
10/26	Home	Toronto	232.0	139-129	Over	+36.0
10/27	Home	Okla City	226.0	94-101	Under	-31.0
10/29	Home	Indiana	229.5	107-105	Under	-17.5
11/01	Neutral	Detroit	227.0	110-122	Over	+5.0
11/03	Away	Houston	226.0	102-110	Under	-14.0
11/05	Home	New Orleans	225.5	99-101	Under	-25.5
11/07	Away	Memphis	232.5	104-118	Under	-10.5
11/08	Away	Washington	234.5	111-105	Under	-18.5
11/10	Home	Milwaukee	229.5	114-116	Over	+0.5
11/12	Home	Phoenix	227.5	114-123	Over	+9.5
11/14	Home	LA Clippers	221.5	127-133	Over	+38.5
11/16	Home	Portland	236.5	138-133	Over	+34.5
11/17	Away	Minnesota	232.5	96-120	Under	-16.5
11/19	Home	New York	233.5	111-113	Under	-9.5
11/21	Home	New Orleans	233.5	118-115	Under	-0.5
11/22	Home	Memphis	229.5	96-102	Under	-31.5
11/24	Away	Miami	240.5	102-106	Under	-32.5
11/28	Away	LA Lakers	232.5	119-129	Over	+15.5
11/29	Away	LA Clippers	224.5	114-110	Under	-0.5
12/01	Away	Denver	235.5	131-121	Over	+16.5
12/03	Home	Miami	238.5	118-108	Under	-12.5
12/05	Away	Okla City	229.5	111-132	Over	+13.5
12/06	Home	Houston	221.5	122-109	Over	+9.5
12/12	Home	Brooklyn	218.5	119-111	Over	+11.5
12/15	Away	Utah	241.5	133-140	Over	+31.5
12/18	Home	Detroit	230.5	116-114	Under	-0.5
12/20	Away	Philadelphia	226.5	114-121	Over	+8.5
12/22	Away	New Orleans	240.5	113-119	Under	-8.5
12/23	Home	Denver	236.5	131-130	Over	+24.5
12/25	Away	Golden State	229.5	116-126	Over	+12.5
12/27	Away	Sacramento	233.5	107-113	Under	-13.5
12/29	Away	Portland	232.5	122-125	Over	+14.5
01/01	Home	Philadelphia	232.5	108-123	Under	-1.5
01/03	Home	Houston	228.5	110-104	Under	-14.5
01/06	Away	Sacramento	233.5	100-98	Under	-35.5
01/08	Away	Utah	243.5	114-116	Under	-13.5
01/10	Away	Chicago	233.5	107-125	Under	-1.5
01/12	Home	Brooklyn	219.5	113-105	Under	-1.5
01/14	Home	Denver	224.5	109-118	Over	+2.5
01/15	Home	Utah	237.5	144-122	Over	+28.5
01/17	Home	Utah	240.5	138-120	Over	+17.5
01/19	Away	New York	231.5	114-97	Under	-20.5
01/22	Home	Golden State	234.5	123-115	Over	+3.5
01/24	Home	LA Lakers	234.5	110-116	Under	-8.5
01/28	Home	Minnesota	228.5	105-118	Under	-5.5
01/29	Home	Charlotte	226.5	121-123	Over	+17.5
01/31	Away	Houston	222.5	107-111	Under	-4.5
02/03	Home	Boston	223.5	100-110	Under	-13.5
02/05	Home	San Antonio	230.5	123-135	Over	+27.5
02/07	Away	San Antonio	233.5	125-138	Over	+29.5
02/10	Away	Phoenix	229.5	111-120	Over	+1.5
02/12	Away	LA Lakers	237.5	104-124	Under	-9.5
02/20	Away	Minnesota	239.5	111-122	Under	-6.5
02/22	Away	Indiana	237.5	134-130	Over	+26.5
02/24	Away	Brooklyn	226.5	123-114	Over	+10.5
02/26	Home	Sacramento	235.5	121-130	Over	+15.5
02/27	Home	Memphis	241.5	105-124	Under	-12.5
03/01	Home	Okla City	235.5	87-100	Under	-48.5
03/03	Away	Charlotte	226.5	90-117	Under	-19.5
03/05	Away	Orlando	230.5	114-115	Under	-1.5
03/06	Away	Boston	226.5	100-120	Under	-6.5
03/08	Away	Toronto	233.5	92-122	Under	-19.5
03/10	Away	Atlanta	241.5	112-124	Under	-5.5
03/12	Away	Memphis	239.5	120-112	Under	-7.5
03/13	Home	Cleveland	236.5	105-138	Over	+6.5
03/15	Away	Cleveland	234.5	130-120	Over	+15.5
03/16	Away	New Orleans	240.5	111-129	Under	-0.5
03/18	Home	Atlanta	239.5	120-135	Over	+15.5
03/21	Home	LA Clippers	233.5	131-138	Over	+35.5
03/23	Home	Golden State	230.5	131-137	Over	+37.5
03/25	Away	Denver	246.5	135-142	Over	+30.5
03/27	Away	Portland	239.5	100-93	Under	-46.5
03/30	Home	Minnesota	236.5	94-124	Under	-18.5
03/31	Away	Milwaukee	229.5	99-123	Under	-7.5
04/03	Home	Orlando	239.5	127-138	Over	+25.5
04/05	Home	LA Lakers	234.5	134-128	Over	+27.5
04/07	Away	LA Clippers	238.5	103-116	Under	-19.5
04/08	Away	Phoenix	233.5	107-112	Under	-14.5
04/10	Away	San Antonio	237.5	120-139	Over	+21.5
04/12	Home	Chicago	250.5	149-128	Over	+26.5