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Miami at Atlanta: Over/Under Analysis
Friday Feb 20, 2026 7:30 pm -
Atlanta, GA
Odds:
Miami by 3.5,
Total Points:
244.5
Matchup Menu: MIA @ ATL
Over/Under Predictions
| Pick | Model | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 244.5 | Official TR Pick | 50% odds to go over |
| Over 244.5 | Decision Tree | 50% odds to go over |
| Over 244.5 | Similar Games | 52% odds to go over |
Over/Under Situational Trends
| Record | MIA | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Season | 47-36-0 | 44-44-0 |
| vs Division | 12-6-0 | 8-8-0 |
| vs Conference | 28-25-0 | 30-28-0 |
| Streak | Ov 4 | Ov 2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1-0 | 3-2-0 |
| Last 10 | 8-2-0 | 5-5-0 |
| Home | 23-18-0 | 19-25-0 |
| Away | 24-18-0 | 25-19-0 |
Records denote overs-unders-pushes
Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Total | Score | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22 | Away | Orlando | 216.0 | 121-125 | Over | +30.0 |
| 10/24 | Away | Memphis | 232.5 | 146-114 | Over | +27.5 |
| 10/26 | Home | New York | 230.5 | 115-107 | Under | -8.5 |
| 10/28 | Home | Charlotte | 241.5 | 144-117 | Over | +19.5 |
| 10/30 | Away | San Antonio | 228.5 | 101-107 | Under | -20.5 |
| 11/02 | Away | LA Lakers | 232.5 | 120-130 | Over | +17.5 |
| 11/03 | Away | LA Clippers | 227.5 | 120-119 | Over | +11.5 |
| 11/05 | Away | Denver | 242.5 | 112-122 | Under | -8.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | Charlotte | 235.5 | 126-108 | Under | -1.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | Portland | 241.5 | 136-131 | Over | +25.5 |
| 11/10 | Home | Cleveland | 248.5 | 140-138 | Over | +29.5 |
| 11/12 | Home | Cleveland | 238.5 | 116-130 | Over | +7.5 |
| 11/14 | Away | New York | 240.5 | 132-140 | Over | +31.5 |
| 11/17 | Home | New York | 244.5 | 115-113 | Under | -16.5 |
| 11/19 | Home | Golden State | 234.5 | 110-96 | Under | -28.5 |
| 11/21 | Away | Chicago | 250.5 | 143-107 | Under | -0.5 |
| 11/23 | Away | Philadelphia | 240.5 | 127-117 | Over | +3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | Dallas | 240.5 | 106-102 | Under | -32.5 |
| 11/26 | Home | Milwaukee | 236.5 | 106-103 | Under | -27.5 |
| 11/29 | Home | Detroit | 239.5 | 135-138 | Over | +33.5 |
| 12/01 | Home | LA Clippers | 235.5 | 140-123 | Over | +27.5 |
| 12/03 | Away | Dallas | 238.5 | 108-118 | Under | -12.5 |
| 12/05 | Away | Orlando | 241.5 | 105-106 | Under | -30.5 |
| 12/06 | Home | Sacramento | 241.5 | 111-127 | Under | -3.5 |
| 12/09 | Away | Orlando | 235.5 | 108-117 | Under | -10.5 |
| 12/15 | Home | Toronto | 234.5 | 96-106 | Under | -32.5 |
| 12/18 | Away | Brooklyn | 228.5 | 106-95 | Under | -27.5 |
| 12/19 | Away | Boston | 232.5 | 116-129 | Over | +12.5 |
| 12/21 | Away | New York | 236.5 | 125-132 | Over | +20.5 |
| 12/23 | Home | Toronto | 227.5 | 91-112 | Under | -24.5 |
| 12/26 | Away | Atlanta | 250.5 | 126-111 | Under | -13.5 |
| 12/27 | Home | Indiana | 233.5 | 142-116 | Over | +24.5 |
| 12/29 | Home | Denver | 243.5 | 147-123 | Over | +26.5 |
| 01/01 | Away | Detroit | 236.5 | 118-112 | Under | -6.5 |
| 01/03 | Home | Minnesota | 235.5 | 115-125 | Over | +4.5 |
| 01/04 | Home | New Orleans | 246.5 | 125-106 | Under | -15.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Minnesota | 238.5 | 94-122 | Under | -22.5 |
| 01/10 | Away | Indiana | 235.5 | 99-123 | Under | -13.5 |
| 01/11 | Away | Okla City | 234.5 | 112-124 | Over | +1.5 |
| 01/13 | Home | Phoenix | 230.5 | 127-121 | Over | +17.5 |
| 01/15 | Home | Boston | 235.5 | 114-119 | Under | -2.5 |
| 01/17 | Home | Okla City | 234.5 | 122-120 | Over | +7.5 |
| 01/19 | Away | Golden State | 239.5 | 112-135 | Over | +7.5 |
| 01/20 | Away | Sacramento | 238.5 | 130-117 | Over | +8.5 |
| 01/22 | Away | Portland | 235.5 | 110-127 | Over | +1.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | Utah | 245.5 | 147-116 | Over | +17.5 |
| 01/25 | Away | Phoenix | 225.5 | 111-102 | Under | -12.5 |
| 01/28 | Home | Orlando | 233.5 | 124-133 | Over | +23.5 |
| 01/29 | Away | Chicago | 238.5 | 116-113 | Under | -9.5 |
| 01/31 | Home | Chicago | 231.5 | 118-125 | Over | +11.5 |
| 02/01 | Home | Chicago | 233.5 | 134-91 | Under | -8.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Atlanta | 237.5 | 115-127 | Over | +4.5 |
| 02/06 | Away | Boston | 227.5 | 96-98 | Under | -33.5 |
| 02/08 | Away | Washington | 236.5 | 132-101 | Under | -3.5 |
| 02/09 | Home | Utah | 236.5 | 111-115 | Under | -10.5 |
| 02/11 | Away | New Orleans | 233.5 | 123-111 | Over | +0.5 |
| 02/20 | Away | Atlanta | 244.5 | 128-97 | Under | -19.5 |
| 02/21 | Home | Memphis | 238.5 | 136-120 | Over | +17.5 |
| 02/24 | Away | Milwaukee | 228.5 | 117-128 | Over | +16.5 |
| 02/26 | Away | Philadelphia | 240.5 | 117-124 | Over | +0.5 |
| 02/28 | Home | Houston | 226.5 | 115-105 | Under | -6.5 |
| 03/03 | Home | Brooklyn | 226.5 | 124-98 | Under | -4.5 |
| 03/05 | Home | Brooklyn | 225.5 | 126-110 | Over | +10.5 |
| 03/06 | Away | Charlotte | 230.5 | 128-120 | Over | +17.5 |
| 03/08 | Home | Detroit | 231.5 | 121-110 | Under | -0.5 |
| 03/10 | Home | Washington | 235.5 | 150-129 | Over | +43.5 |
| 03/12 | Home | Milwaukee | 234.5 | 112-105 | Under | -17.5 |
| 03/14 | Home | Orlando | 237.0 | 117-121 | Over | +1.0 |
| 03/17 | Away | Charlotte | 236.5 | 106-136 | Over | +5.5 |
| 03/19 | Home | LA Lakers | 242.5 | 126-134 | Over | +17.5 |
| 03/21 | Away | Houston | 228.5 | 122-123 | Over | +16.5 |
| 03/23 | Home | San Antonio | 244.5 | 111-136 | Over | +2.5 |
| 03/25 | Away | Cleveland | 243.5 | 120-103 | Under | -20.5 |
| 03/27 | Away | Cleveland | 240.5 | 128-149 | Over | +36.5 |
| 03/29 | Away | Indiana | 245.5 | 118-135 | Over | +7.5 |
| 03/30 | Home | Philadelphia | 243.5 | 119-109 | Under | -15.5 |
| 04/01 | Home | Boston | 230.5 | 129-147 | Over | +45.5 |
| 04/04 | Home | Washington | 245.5 | 152-136 | Over | +42.5 |
| 04/07 | Away | Toronto | 240.5 | 95-121 | Under | -24.5 |
| 04/09 | Away | Toronto | 236.5 | 114-128 | Over | +5.5 |
| 04/10 | Away | Washington | 244.5 | 140-117 | Over | +12.5 |
| 04/12 | Home | Atlanta | 240.5 | 143-117 | Over | +19.5 |
| 04/14 | Away | Charlotte | 228.5 | 126-127 | Over | +24.5 |
Atlanta Detailed Over/Under Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Total | Score | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22 | Home | Toronto | 237.0 | 118-138 | Over | +19.0 |
| 10/24 | Away | Orlando | 235.0 | 111-107 | Under | -17.0 |
| 10/25 | Home | Okla City | 237.0 | 100-117 | Under | -20.0 |
| 10/27 | Away | Chicago | 243.5 | 123-128 | Over | +7.5 |
| 10/29 | Away | Brooklyn | 239.5 | 117-112 | Under | -10.5 |
| 10/31 | Away | Indiana | 233.0 | 128-108 | Over | +3.0 |
| 11/02 | Away | Cleveland | 230.0 | 109-117 | Under | -4.0 |
| 11/04 | Home | Orlando | 228.5 | 127-112 | Over | +10.5 |
| 11/07 | Home | Toronto | 235.5 | 97-109 | Under | -29.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | LA Lakers | 228.5 | 122-102 | Under | -4.5 |
| 11/10 | Away | LA Clippers | 220.5 | 105-102 | Under | -13.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | Sacramento | 230.5 | 133-100 | Over | +2.5 |
| 11/13 | Away | Utah | 234.5 | 132-122 | Over | +19.5 |
| 11/16 | Away | Phoenix | 226.5 | 124-122 | Over | +19.5 |
| 11/18 | Home | Detroit | 227.5 | 112-120 | Over | +4.5 |
| 11/20 | Away | San Antonio | 233.5 | 126-135 | Over | +27.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | New Orleans | 232.5 | 115-98 | Under | -19.5 |
| 11/23 | Home | Charlotte | 232.5 | 113-110 | Under | -9.5 |
| 11/25 | Away | Washington | 239.5 | 113-132 | Over | +5.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | Cleveland | 236.5 | 130-123 | Over | +16.5 |
| 11/30 | Away | Philadelphia | 232.5 | 142-134 | Over | +43.5 |
| 12/01 | Away | Detroit | 232.5 | 98-99 | Under | -35.5 |
| 12/03 | Home | LA Clippers | 225.5 | 92-115 | Under | -18.5 |
| 12/05 | Home | Denver | 238.5 | 133-134 | Over | +28.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Washington | 237.5 | 131-116 | Over | +9.5 |
| 12/12 | Away | Detroit | 233.5 | 115-142 | Over | +23.5 |
| 12/14 | Home | Philadelphia | 225.5 | 120-117 | Over | +11.5 |
| 12/18 | Away | Charlotte | 240.5 | 126-133 | Over | +18.5 |
| 12/19 | Home | San Antonio | 238.5 | 98-126 | Under | -14.5 |
| 12/21 | Home | Chicago | 248.5 | 150-152 | Over | +53.5 |
| 12/23 | Home | Chicago | 254.5 | 123-126 | Under | -5.5 |
| 12/26 | Home | Miami | 250.5 | 111-126 | Under | -13.5 |
| 12/27 | Home | New York | 244.5 | 125-128 | Over | +8.5 |
| 12/29 | Away | Okla City | 232.5 | 129-140 | Over | +36.5 |
| 12/31 | Home | Minnesota | 239.5 | 126-102 | Under | -11.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | New York | 239.5 | 111-99 | Under | -29.5 |
| 01/03 | Away | Toronto | 231.5 | 117-134 | Over | +19.5 |
| 01/05 | Away | Toronto | 236.5 | 100-118 | Under | -18.5 |
| 01/07 | Home | New Orleans | 246.5 | 117-100 | Under | -29.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Denver | 230.5 | 110-87 | Under | -33.5 |
| 01/11 | Away | Golden State | 236.5 | 124-111 | Under | -1.5 |
| 01/13 | Away | LA Lakers | 233.5 | 116-141 | Over | +23.5 |
| 01/15 | Away | Portland | 228.5 | 101-117 | Under | -10.5 |
| 01/17 | Home | Boston | 231.5 | 106-132 | Over | +6.5 |
| 01/19 | Home | Milwaukee | 232.5 | 110-112 | Under | -10.5 |
| 01/21 | Away | Memphis | 239.5 | 124-122 | Over | +6.5 |
| 01/23 | Home | Phoenix | 233.5 | 110-103 | Under | -20.5 |
| 01/26 | Home | Indiana | 233.5 | 132-116 | Over | +14.5 |
| 01/28 | Away | Boston | 232.5 | 117-106 | Under | -9.5 |
| 01/29 | Home | Houston | 223.5 | 86-104 | Under | -33.5 |
| 01/31 | Away | Indiana | 235.5 | 124-129 | Over | +17.5 |
| 02/03 | Away | Miami | 237.5 | 127-115 | Over | +4.5 |
| 02/05 | Home | Utah | 245.5 | 121-119 | Under | -5.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | Charlotte | 234.5 | 119-126 | Over | +10.5 |
| 02/09 | Away | Minnesota | 238.5 | 116-138 | Over | +15.5 |
| 02/11 | Away | Charlotte | 234.5 | 107-110 | Under | -17.5 |
| 02/19 | Away | Philadelphia | 241.5 | 117-107 | Under | -17.5 |
| 02/20 | Home | Miami | 244.5 | 97-128 | Under | -19.5 |
| 02/22 | Home | Brooklyn | 227.5 | 115-104 | Under | -8.5 |
| 02/24 | Home | Washington | 236.5 | 119-98 | Under | -19.5 |
| 02/26 | Home | Washington | 235.5 | 126-96 | Under | -13.5 |
| 03/01 | Home | Portland | 235.5 | 135-101 | Over | +0.5 |
| 03/04 | Away | Milwaukee | 232.5 | 131-113 | Over | +11.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Philadelphia | 233.5 | 125-116 | Over | +7.5 |
| 03/10 | Home | Dallas | 241.5 | 124-112 | Under | -5.5 |
| 03/12 | Home | Brooklyn | 226.5 | 108-97 | Under | -21.5 |
| 03/14 | Home | Milwaukee | 228.5 | 122-99 | Under | -7.5 |
| 03/16 | Home | Orlando | 232.5 | 124-112 | Over | +3.5 |
| 03/18 | Away | Dallas | 239.5 | 135-120 | Over | +15.5 |
| 03/20 | Away | Houston | 226.5 | 95-117 | Under | -14.5 |
| 03/21 | Home | Golden State | 227.5 | 126-110 | Over | +8.5 |
| 03/23 | Home | Memphis | 239.5 | 146-107 | Over | +13.5 |
| 03/25 | Away | Detroit | 229.5 | 130-129 | Over | +29.5 |
| 03/27 | Away | Boston | 224.5 | 102-109 | Under | -13.5 |
| 03/28 | Home | Sacramento | 234.5 | 123-113 | Over | +1.5 |
| 03/30 | Home | Boston | 226.5 | 112-102 | Under | -12.5 |
| 04/01 | Away | Orlando | 234.5 | 130-101 | Under | -3.5 |
| 04/03 | Away | Brooklyn | 225.5 | 141-107 | Over | +22.5 |
| 04/06 | Home | New York | 226.5 | 105-108 | Under | -13.5 |
| 04/08 | Away | Cleveland | 235.5 | 116-122 | Over | +2.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Cleveland | 233.5 | 124-102 | Under | -7.5 |
| 04/12 | Away | Miami | 240.5 | 117-143 | Over | +19.5 |
| 04/18 | Away | New York | 218.5 | 102-113 | Under | -3.5 |
| 04/20 | Away | New York | 218.5 | 107-106 | Under | -5.5 |
| 04/23 | Home | New York | 215.5 | 109-108 | Over | +1.5 |
| 04/25 | Home | New York | 215.5 | 98-114 | Under | -3.5 |
| 04/28 | Away | New York | 214.5 | 97-126 | Over | +8.5 |
| 04/30 | Home | New York | 214.5 | 89-140 | Over | +14.5 |