Miami at Tampa Bay: Over/Under Analysis

Sunday May 17, 2026 12:15 pm - St. Petersburg, FL
Odds: Tampa Bay by 1.5, Total Points: 7.5

Matchup Menu: MIA @ TB

More Games From May 17, 2026

Over/Under Predictions

Pick Model Confidence
Under 7.5 Official TR Pick 51% odds to go under
Under 7.5 Decision Tree 50% odds to go under
Over 7.5 Similar Games 52% odds to go over

Over/Under Situational Trends

Record MIA TB
Season 56-50-3 47-56-5
vs Division 17-10-2 16-18-1
vs Conference 34-34-2 33-38-4
Streak Ov 1 Un 5
Last 5 3-2-0 0-5-0
Last 10 4-6-0 3-7-0
Home 25-32-0 23-29-4
Away 31-18-3 24-27-1

Records denote overs-unders-pushes

Miami Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Total Score Result +/-
03/27 Home Colorado 8.0 2-1 Under -5.0
03/28 Home Colorado 7.5 4-3 Under -0.5
03/29 Home Colorado 8.0 4-3 Under -1.0
03/30 Home Chi Sox 8.0 4-9 Over +5.0
03/31 Home Chi Sox 8.0 9-2 Over +3.0
04/01 Home Chi Sox 7.5 10-0 Over +2.5
04/03 Away NY Yankees 8.0 2-8 Over +2.0
04/04 Away NY Yankees 7.5 7-9 Over +8.5
04/05 Away NY Yankees 8.5 7-6 Over +4.5
04/06 Home Cincinnati 8.0 0-2 Under -6.0
04/07 Home Cincinnati 7.0 3-6 Over +2.0
04/08 Home Cincinnati 8.0 7-4 Over +3.0
04/09 Home Cincinnati 8.0 8-1 Over +1.0
04/10 Away Detroit 8.5 0-2 Under -6.5
04/11 Away Detroit 7.0 1-6 Push 0.0
04/12 Away Detroit 6.0 2-8 Over +4.0
04/13 Away Atlanta 8.0 10-4 Over +6.0
04/14 Away Atlanta 8.5 5-6 Over +2.5
04/15 Away Atlanta 9.0 3-6 Push 0.0
04/17 Home Milwaukee 8.0 5-7 Over +4.0
04/18 Home Milwaukee 7.5 2-5 Under -0.5
04/19 Home Milwaukee 7.5 5-3 Over +0.5
04/20 Home St. Louis 8.5 5-3 Under -0.5
04/21 Home St. Louis 8.5 3-5 Under -0.5
04/22 Home St. Louis 8.0 4-1 Under -3.0
04/24 Away SF Giants 7.5 9-4 Over +5.5
04/25 Away SF Giants 7.5 2-6 Over +0.5
04/26 Away SF Giants 7.5 3-6 Over +1.5
04/27 Away LA Dodgers 8.5 4-5 Over +0.5
04/28 Away LA Dodgers 7.5 2-1 Under -4.5
04/29 Away LA Dodgers 8.5 3-2 Under -3.5
05/01 Home Philadelphia 7.5 5-6 Over +3.5
05/02 Home Philadelphia 8.5 4-0 Under -4.5
05/03 Home Philadelphia 8.0 2-7 Over +1.0
05/04 Home Philadelphia 8.5 0-1 Under -7.5
05/05 Home Baltimore 8.5 7-9 Over +7.5
05/06 Home Baltimore 8.5 4-7 Over +2.5
05/07 Home Baltimore 8.5 4-3 Under -1.5
05/08 Home Washington 8.5 2-3 Under -3.5
05/09 Home Washington 8.5 8-7 Over +6.5
05/10 Home Washington 8.5 5-2 Under -1.5
05/12 Away Minnesota 9.0 0-3 Under -6.0
05/13 Away Minnesota 8.5 9-5 Over +5.5
05/14 Away Minnesota 8.5 1-9 Over +1.5
05/15 Away Tampa Bay 8.0 2-7 Over +1.0
05/16 Away Tampa Bay 8.0 10-5 Over +7.0
05/17 Away Tampa Bay 7.5 3-6 Over +1.5
05/18 Home Atlanta 8.5 12-0 Over +3.5
05/19 Home Atlanta 8.0 4-8 Over +4.0
05/20 Home Atlanta 7.0 1-9 Over +3.0
05/21 Home Atlanta 7.5 3-9 Over +4.5
05/22 Home NY Mets 8.0 2-1 Under -5.0
05/23 Home NY Mets 7.5 4-1 Under -2.5
05/24 Home NY Mets 7.5 4-0 Under -3.5
05/25 Away Toronto 7.5 8-2 Over +2.5
05/26 Away Toronto 7.5 1-8 Over +1.5
05/27 Away Toronto 7.5 1-2 Under -4.5
05/29 Away NY Mets 7.5 7-9 Over +8.5
05/30 Away NY Mets 7.0 1-6 Push 0.0
05/31 Away NY Mets 7.5 1-10 Over +3.5
06/01 Away Washington 8.5 7-3 Over +1.5
06/02 Away Washington 9.0 7-3 Over +1.0
06/03 Away Washington 8.0 4-1 Under -3.0
06/05 Home Tampa Bay 7.5 0-6 Under -1.5
06/06 Home Tampa Bay 7.5 4-3 Under -0.5
06/07 Home Tampa Bay 7.5 4-1 Under -2.5
06/09 Home Arizona 8.0 10-6 Over +8.0
06/10 Home Arizona 8.5 8-0 Under -0.5
06/11 Home Arizona 8.5 2-0 Under -6.5
06/12 Away Pittsburgh 8.5 8-3 Over +2.5
06/13 Away Pittsburgh 9.5 2-3 Under -4.5
06/14 Away Pittsburgh 7.5 4-2 Under -1.5
06/15 Away Philadelphia 8.0 0-7 Under -1.0
06/16 Away Philadelphia 8.5 2-8 Over +1.5
06/17 Away Philadelphia 9.5 12-4 Over +6.5
06/19 Home SF Giants 8.0 4-3 Under -1.0
06/20 Home SF Giants 8.0 6-3 Over +1.0
06/21 Home SF Giants 8.5 2-1 Under -5.5
06/22 Home Texas 8.5 3-4 Under -1.5
06/23 Home Texas 8.5 6-4 Over +1.5
06/24 Home Texas 7.5 4-2 Under -1.5
06/26 Away St. Louis 8.5 4-0 Under -4.5
06/27 Away St. Louis 8.5 5-1 Under -2.5
06/28 Away St. Louis 9.5 1-2 Under -6.5
06/29 Away Colorado 12.0 10-7 Over +5.0
06/30 Away Colorado 11.0 14-3 Over +6.0
07/01 Away Colorado 11.0 3-6 Under -2.0
07/02 Away Colorado 12.5 4-14 Over +5.5
07/03 Away Sacramento 11.0 12-5 Over +6.0
07/04 Away Sacramento 11.5 7-2 Under -2.5
07/05 Away Sacramento 10.0 9-8 Over +7.0
07/07 Home Seattle 8.0 6-5 Over +3.0
07/08 Home Seattle 8.5 2-0 Under -6.5
07/09 Home Seattle 8.0 8-4 Over +4.0
07/10 Home Cleveland 7.0 2-3 Under -2.0
07/11 Home Cleveland 7.5 1-4 Under -2.5
07/12 Home Cleveland 7.5 2-5 Under -0.5
07/17 Away Milwaukee 8.5 1-2 Under -5.5
07/18 Away Milwaukee 8.0 6-8 Over +6.0
07/19 Away Milwaukee 8.0 1-3 Under -4.0
07/20 Away Houston 9.0 5-8 Over +4.0
07/21 Away Houston 9.0 3-5 Under -1.0
07/22 Away Houston 8.0 2-5 Under -1.0
07/24 Home San Diego 9.0 2-4 Under -3.0
07/25 Home San Diego 8.0 2-7 Over +1.0
07/26 Home San Diego 8.5 3-5 Under -0.5
07/27 Home Philadelphia 8.0 8-7 Over +7.0
07/28 Home Philadelphia 8.0 1-0 Under -7.0
07/29 Home Philadelphia 7.5 8-6 Over +6.5

Tampa Bay Detailed Over/Under Performance

Date H/A/N Opponent Total Score Result +/-
03/26 Away St. Louis 8.0 7-9 Over +8.0
03/28 Away St. Louis 7.5 5-6 Over +3.5
03/29 Away St. Louis 8.0 11-7 Over +10.0
03/30 Away Milwaukee 8.0 3-2 Under -3.0
03/31 Away Milwaukee 7.5 2-6 Over +0.5
04/01 Away Milwaukee 7.0 2-8 Over +3.0
04/03 Away Minnesota 7.5 4-10 Over +6.5
04/04 Away Minnesota 8.0 7-1 Push 0.0
04/05 Away Minnesota 8.0 4-1 Under -3.0
04/06 Home Chi Cubs 8.0 6-4 Over +2.0
04/07 Home Chi Cubs 8.5 2-9 Over +2.5
04/08 Home Chi Cubs 8.0 2-6 Push 0.0
04/10 Home NY Yankees 8.5 5-3 Under -0.5
04/11 Home NY Yankees 7.5 5-4 Over +1.5
04/12 Home NY Yankees 7.5 5-4 Over +1.5
04/14 Away Chi Sox 8.0 8-5 Over +5.0
04/15 Away Chi Sox 8.5 8-3 Over +2.5
04/16 Away Chi Sox 8.5 5-3 Under -0.5
04/17 Away Pittsburgh 8.5 1-5 Under -2.5
04/18 Away Pittsburgh 7.5 8-7 Over +7.5
04/19 Away Pittsburgh 8.0 3-6 Over +1.0
04/20 Home Cincinnati 8.0 1-6 Under -1.0
04/21 Home Cincinnati 7.5 6-12 Over +10.5
04/22 Home Cincinnati 8.5 6-1 Under -1.5
04/24 Home Minnesota 7.5 6-2 Over +0.5
04/25 Home Minnesota 8.5 6-1 Under -1.5
04/26 Home Minnesota 8.5 4-2 Under -2.5
04/27 Away Cleveland 8.0 3-2 Under -3.0
04/28 Away Cleveland 7.5 1-0 Under -6.5
04/29 Away Cleveland 6.5 1-3 Under -2.5
05/01 Home SF Giants 7.5 3-0 Under -4.5
05/02 Home SF Giants 7.5 5-1 Under -1.5
05/03 Home SF Giants 8.0 2-1 Under -5.0
05/04 Home Toronto 8.0 5-1 Under -2.0
05/05 Home Toronto 7.0 4-3 Push 0.0
05/06 Home Toronto 7.5 3-0 Under -4.5
05/07 Away Boston 8.5 8-4 Over +3.5
05/08 Away Boston 8.5 0-2 Under -6.5
05/10 Away Boston 8.5 4-1 Under -3.5
05/11 Away Toronto 7.0 8-5 Over +6.0
05/12 Away Toronto 8.0 7-6 Over +5.0
05/13 Away Toronto 7.5 3-5 Over +0.5
05/15 Home Miami 8.0 7-2 Over +1.0
05/16 Home Miami 8.0 5-10 Over +7.0
05/17 Home Miami 7.5 6-3 Over +1.5
05/18 Home Baltimore 7.5 16-6 Over +14.5
05/19 Home Baltimore 7.5 4-1 Under -2.5
05/20 Home Baltimore 8.5 5-3 Under -0.5
05/22 Away NY Yankees 7.5 4-2 Under -1.5
05/24 Away NY Yankees 7.0 0-2 Under -5.0
05/25 Away Baltimore 7.5 7-9 Over +8.5
05/26 Away Baltimore 8.5 1-6 Under -1.5
05/27 Away Baltimore 9.5 2-11 Over +3.5
05/29 Home LA Angels 8.0 8-5 Over +5.0
05/30 Home LA Angels 7.0 3-14 Over +10.0
05/31 Home LA Angels 8.0 5-2 Under -1.0
06/01 Home Detroit 8.5 9-10 Over +10.5
06/02 Home Detroit 8.0 0-8 Push 0.0
06/03 Home Detroit 8.5 2-7 Over +0.5
06/05 Away Miami 7.5 6-0 Under -1.5
06/06 Away Miami 7.5 3-4 Under -0.5
06/07 Away Miami 7.5 1-4 Under -2.5
06/08 Home Boston 8.0 3-1 Under -4.0
06/09 Home Boston 7.5 4-3 Under -0.5
06/10 Home Boston 7.5 7-5 Over +4.5
06/12 Away LA Angels 9.0 3-4 Under -2.0
06/13 Away LA Angels 8.5 0-8 Under -0.5
06/14 Away LA Angels 9.0 8-3 Over +2.0
06/15 Away LA Dodgers 9.5 3-4 Under -2.5
06/16 Away LA Dodgers 8.0 0-1 Under -7.0
06/17 Away LA Dodgers 7.0 4-5 Over +2.0
06/19 Home Washington 8.5 5-2 Under -1.5
06/20 Home Washington 8.0 3-4 Under -1.0
06/21 Home Washington 8.5 4-3 Under -1.5
06/22 Home Kansas City 7.5 1-2 Under -4.5
06/23 Home Kansas City 7.5 5-12 Over +9.5
06/24 Home Kansas City 7.5 5-3 Over +0.5
06/25 Home Kansas City 8.0 13-2 Over +7.0
06/26 Home Arizona 8.5 6-1 Under -1.5
06/27 Home Arizona 8.5 4-2 Under -2.5
06/28 Home Arizona 8.0 5-1 Under -2.0
06/30 Away Kansas City 9.5 10-4 Over +4.5
07/01 Away Kansas City 10.5 4-0 Under -6.5
07/02 Away Kansas City 10.0 5-2 Under -3.0
07/03 Away Houston 9.0 3-1 Under -5.0
07/04 Away Houston 7.0 8-10 Over +11.0
07/05 Away Houston 9.0 0-2 Under -7.0
07/06 Home NY Yankees 7.5 1-5 Under -1.5
07/07 Home NY Yankees 7.5 6-4 Over +2.5
07/08 Home NY Yankees 7.5 3-0 Under -4.5
07/09 Home NY Yankees 7.5 4-12 Over +8.5
07/10 Home Seattle 8.5 7-2 Over +0.5
07/11 Home Seattle 7.0 6-1 Push 0.0
07/12 Home Seattle 8.0 2-8 Over +2.0
07/17 Away Boston 8.5 0-10 Over +1.5
07/17 Away Boston 9.0 3-5 Under -1.0
07/18 Away Boston 9.5 6-7 Over +3.5
07/19 Away Boston 8.5 1-6 Under -1.5
07/20 Away Toronto 7.5 7-1 Over +0.5
07/21 Away Toronto 7.5 12-2 Over +6.5
07/22 Away Toronto 7.5 4-2 Under -1.5
07/23 Away Toronto 8.5 1-3 Under -4.5
07/24 Home Cleveland 7.5 11-3 Over +6.5
07/25 Home Cleveland 8.0 3-0 Under -5.0
07/26 Home Cleveland 7.0 1-0 Under -6.0
07/28 Home Texas 8.0 1-4 Under -3.0
07/29 Home Texas 7.5 3-0 Under -4.5
07/30 Home Texas 8.0 3-2 Under -3.0