Dallas vs. Toronto: Box Score Simulation

Friday Jul 10, 2026 7:30 pm - Montreal, QC (Neutral Site)
Odds: Dallas by 7.5, Total Points: 178.5

Matchup Menu: DAL vs. TOR

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL TOR
Points 95.3 84.6
Total Points   179.9
Points From 2-Pointers 52.7 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 26.8
Points From Free Throws 16.1 15.9
Shooting DAL TOR
Field Goals Made 35.2 29.9
Field Goals Attempted 72.1 69.6
Field Goal % 48.8% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.1% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 16.1 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 19.9
Free Throw % 80.0% 79.5%
Ball Control DAL TOR
Rebounds 42.6 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 31.2 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.4
Turnovers 10.0 12.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 2.5
Steals 6.2 4.9
Fouls 16.8 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL TOR
Total Possessions 83.2
Effective Scoring Chances 84.6 81.6
% of Possessions with DAL TOR
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 28.6%
Player Fouled 21.3% 20.2%
Turnover 12.0% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL TOR
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 25.0%