Dallas at Indiana: Box Score Simulation

Saturday May 9, 2026 1:00 pm - Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Indiana by 5.5, Total Points: 179.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ IND

More Games From May 9, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL IND
Points 93.5 94.8
Total Points   188.3
Points From 2-Pointers 55.0 48.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 29.2
Points From Free Throws 16.3 17.0
Shooting DAL IND
Field Goals Made 34.9 34.0
Field Goals Attempted 72.4 70.6
Field Goal % 48.1% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.5 24.3
2 Pointers Attempted 50.9 45.4
2 Point Shooting % 54.0% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 21.6 25.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 16.3 17.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.4 21.3
Free Throw % 80.0% 80.0%
Ball Control DAL IND
Rebounds 39.3 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.3 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 9.3
Turnovers 10.6 11.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.0
Steals 5.6 5.2
Fouls 18.9 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL IND
Total Possessions 85.4
Effective Scoring Chances 84.8 83.1
% of Possessions with DAL IND
2 Point Attempt 52.7% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 26.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.1%
Turnover 12.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL IND
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 24.1%