Dallas at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Friday May 22, 2026 7:30 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 5.5, Total Points: 173.5

Matchup Menu: DAL @ ATL

More Games From May 22, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL ATL
Points 90.7 88.4
Total Points   179.1
Points From 2-Pointers 53.1 47.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 22.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 18.8
Shooting DAL ATL
Field Goals Made 34.1 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 67.7 71.3
Field Goal % 50.4% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 26.6 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 46.2 46.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 50.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 15.0 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 23.8
Free Throw % 80.8% 79.1%
Ball Control DAL ATL
Rebounds 37.4 40.7
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 12.5
Turnovers 12.9 11.5
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.1
Steals 5.4 6.4
Fouls 17.9 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL ATL
Total Possessions 84.5
Effective Scoring Chances 78.8 85.5
% of Possessions with DAL ATL
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 24.9%
Player Fouled 20.4% 21.1%
Turnover 15.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL ATL
Shot Blocked 4.5% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 29.4%