Golden State at Dallas: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jun 17, 2025 8:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: Dallas by 3, Total Points: 164.5

Matchup Menu: GSV @ DAL

More Games From Jun 17, 2025

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSV DAL
Points 82.2 78.8
Total Points   161.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 40.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 23.5
Points From Free Throws 13.9 14.9
Shooting GSV DAL
Field Goals Made 29.1 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 70.2 65.7
Field Goal % 41.5% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 20.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.1 42.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.7% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 13.9 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 18.6
Free Throw % 78.7% 80.0%
Ball Control GSV DAL
Rebounds 41.1 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 9.4
Turnovers 9.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.4
Steals 5.9 4.7
Fouls 16.5 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSV DAL
Total Possessions 79.2
Effective Scoring Chances 80.9 77.0
% of Possessions with GSV DAL
2 Point Attempt 43.8% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 26.3%
Player Fouled 20.4% 20.8%
Turnover 12.0% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSV DAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 24.0%