Golden State at Indiana: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jul 15, 2026 8:00 pm - Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Indiana by 2.5, Total Points: 166.5

Matchup Menu: GSV @ IND

More Games From Jul 15, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSV IND
Points 88.0 87.1
Total Points   175.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 38.0
Points From 3-Pointers 29.1 29.5
Points From Free Throws 17.4 19.6
Shooting GSV IND
Field Goals Made 30.5 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 70.1 63.7
Field Goal % 43.5% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 19.0
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.7 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 17.4 19.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 23.6
Free Throw % 77.4% 83.0%
Ball Control GSV IND
Rebounds 38.2 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 9.6
Turnovers 9.9 14.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.5
Steals 6.8 4.7
Fouls 20.2 19.7

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSV IND
Total Possessions 82.4
Effective Scoring Chances 83.6 77.9
% of Possessions with GSV IND
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 26.3%
Player Fouled 24.0% 24.5%
Turnover 12.0% 17.1%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSV IND
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 26.2%