Golden State at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Saturday Jul 4, 2026 1:00 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 5.5, Total Points: 162.5

Matchup Menu: GSV @ ATL

More Games From Jul 4, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring GSV ATL
Points 85.9 79.8
Total Points   165.8
Points From 2-Pointers 39.4 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 31.0 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.6 20.2
Shooting GSV ATL
Field Goals Made 30.0 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.4 65.6
Field Goal % 46.6% 39.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.7 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 45.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 15.6 20.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 25.8
Free Throw % 78.8% 78.2%
Ball Control GSV ATL
Rebounds 37.3 41.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 13.3
Turnovers 13.0 13.0
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.2
Steals 6.3 6.8
Fouls 18.9 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GSV ATL
Total Possessions 81.1
Effective Scoring Chances 76.5 81.4
% of Possessions with GSV ATL
2 Point Attempt 40.3% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 25.6%
Player Fouled 22.3% 23.3%
Turnover 16.1% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GSV ATL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 31.5%