Toronto at Golden State: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Aug 4, 2026 10:00 pm - San Francisco, CA
Odds: Golden State by 11.5, Total Points: 169.5

Matchup Menu: TOR @ GSV

More Games From Aug 4, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR GSV
Points 79.5 90.8
Total Points   170.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 28.6 35.8
Points From Free Throws 16.7 16.6
Shooting TOR GSV
Field Goals Made 26.6 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 63.1 70.9
Field Goal % 42.2% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 19.2
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 37.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 26.8 33.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 16.7 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 20.5 21.3
Free Throw % 81.3% 77.9%
Ball Control TOR GSV
Rebounds 37.9 42.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 29.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.5
Turnovers 14.0 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.2
Steals 5.1 7.0
Fouls 18.7 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR GSV
Total Possessions 80.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 84.3
% of Possessions with TOR GSV
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 35.7%
Player Fouled 22.1% 23.2%
Turnover 17.4% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR GSV
Shot Blocked 6.0% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 32.0%