Toronto at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Sep 24, 2026 7:00 pm - Uncasville, CT
Odds: N/A, Total Points: N/A

Matchup Menu: TOR @ CON

More Games From Sep 24, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR CON
Points 87.1 85.9
Total Points   173.1
Points From 2-Pointers 41.0 49.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.5 19.6
Points From Free Throws 19.6 17.1
Shooting TOR CON
Field Goals Made 29.4 31.2
Field Goals Attempted 64.2 70.1
Field Goal % 45.7% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.5 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 48.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.0% 50.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 19.6 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 23.8
Free Throw % 79.5% 71.6%
Ball Control TOR CON
Rebounds 39.2 40.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 13.1
Turnovers 14.5 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.7
Steals 6.1 7.8
Fouls 19.1 20.3

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR CON
Total Possessions 83.8
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 84.9
% of Possessions with TOR CON
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 21.9%
Player Fouled 24.2% 22.8%
Turnover 17.3% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR CON
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 30.7%