Toronto at Minnesota: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jul 28, 2026 8:00 pm - Minneapolis, MN
Odds: Minnesota by 16.5, Total Points: 186.5

Matchup Menu: TOR @ MIN

More Games From Jul 28, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOR MIN
Points 84.3 99.2
Total Points   183.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.5 52.1
Points From 3-Pointers 31.1 31.2
Points From Free Throws 15.7 15.9
Shooting TOR MIN
Field Goals Made 29.1 36.5
Field Goals Attempted 68.7 72.4
Field Goal % 42.4% 50.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 26.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 46.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.8% 56.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 10.4
3 Pointers Attempted 30.3 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 15.7 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 19.5
Free Throw % 79.8% 81.5%
Ball Control TOR MIN
Rebounds 37.5 41.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 12.3
Turnovers 14.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.6
Steals 5.8 7.9
Fouls 15.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOR MIN
Total Possessions 83.3
Effective Scoring Chances 81.0 84.7
% of Possessions with TOR MIN
2 Point Attempt 39.6% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 26.8%
Player Fouled 19.5% 18.6%
Turnover 17.2% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOR MIN
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 32.6%