Connecticut at Washington: Box Score Simulation

Tuesday Jul 28, 2026 7:30 pm - Washington, DC
Odds: Washington by 6.5, Total Points: 161.5

Matchup Menu: CON @ WAS

More Games From Jul 28, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CON WAS
Points 76.4 81.2
Total Points   157.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.6 42.6
Points From 3-Pointers 15.8 16.5
Points From Free Throws 15.0 22.1
Shooting CON WAS
Field Goals Made 28.1 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.7 60.5
Field Goal % 42.1% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 22.8 21.3
2 Pointers Attempted 48.2 43.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 17.0
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 15.0 22.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 30.2
Free Throw % 69.7% 73.4%
Ball Control CON WAS
Rebounds 36.0 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 32.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 11.7
Turnovers 12.7 15.6
Blocked Shots 6.3 3.9
Steals 8.7 5.1
Fouls 24.1 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CON WAS
Total Possessions 82.6
Effective Scoring Chances 79.7 78.6
% of Possessions with CON WAS
2 Point Attempt 51.3% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.7% 17.6%
Player Fouled 22.7% 29.2%
Turnover 15.3% 18.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CON WAS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 9.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 30.9%