Connecticut at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Sunday Jul 19, 2026 7:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 4.5, Total Points: 164.5

Matchup Menu: CON @ PHX

More Games From Jul 19, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CON PHX
Points 79.5 82.1
Total Points   161.6
Points From 2-Pointers 45.2 39.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.9 21.2
Shooting CON PHX
Field Goals Made 29.1 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 60.5
Field Goal % 43.5% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 22.6 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 46.5 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 20.3 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.9 21.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 27.4
Free Throw % 70.6% 77.4%
Ball Control CON PHX
Rebounds 40.2 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 30.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 7.1
Turnovers 13.5 13.8
Blocked Shots 4.9 3.3
Steals 7.1 6.8
Fouls 23.4 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CON PHX
Total Possessions 83.0
Effective Scoring Chances 80.0 76.3
% of Possessions with CON PHX
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 23.1%
Player Fouled 21.0% 28.1%
Turnover 16.3% 16.6%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CON PHX
Shot Blocked 5.6% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 25.6% 19.3%