Connecticut at Indiana: Box Score Simulation

Wednesday Jul 22, 2026 8:00 pm - Indianapolis, IN
Odds: Indiana by 10.5, Total Points: 178.5

Matchup Menu: CON @ IND

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Box Score Projection

Scoring	CON	IND
Points	83.3	94.8
Total Points		178.1
Points From 2-Pointers	50.8	44.6
Points From 3-Pointers	15.5	28.6
Points From Free Throws	17.0	21.6

Shooting	CON	IND
Field Goals Made	30.6	31.8
Field Goals Attempted	69.8	64.2
Field Goal %	43.8%	49.6%
2 Pointers Made	25.4	22.3
2 Pointers Attempted	53.1	41.5
2 Point Shooting %	47.8%	53.8%
3 Pointers Made	5.2	9.5
3 Pointers Attempted	16.7	22.7
3 Point Shooting %	30.9%	42.0%
Free Throws Made	17.0	21.6
Free Throws Attempted	24.3	26.4
Free Throw %	69.9%	81.8%

Ball Control	CON	IND
Rebounds	37.6	40.3
Rebounds - Defensive	25.7	31.3
Rebounds - Offensive	11.9	8.9
Turnovers	12.9	14.8
Blocked Shots	4.9	4.2
Steals	7.4	6.4
Fouls	23.3	19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats	CON	IND
Total Possessions	85.7
Effective Scoring Chances	84.7	79.8

% of Possessions with	CON	IND
2 Point Attempt	53.5%	43.0%
3 Point Attempt	16.9%	23.5%
Player Fouled	22.9%	27.2%
Turnover	15.1%	17.3%
Opponent Steal	7.5%	8.6%

Odds Per Shot Taken	CON	IND
Shot Blocked	6.6%	7.2%
Offensive Rebound	27.5%	25.8%