Connecticut at Atlanta: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Sep 17, 2026 7:30 pm - College Park, GA
Odds: Atlanta by 14.5, Total Points: 169.5

Matchup Menu: CON @ ATL

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Box Score Projection

Scoring	CON	ATL
Points	80.9	90.4
Total Points		171.3
Points From 2-Pointers	47.8	43.7
Points From 3-Pointers	16.8	23.7
Points From Free Throws	16.4	23.0

Shooting	CON	ATL
Field Goals Made	29.5	29.7
Field Goals Attempted	64.4	66.0
Field Goal %	45.8%	45.1%
2 Pointers Made	23.9	21.9
2 Pointers Attempted	46.5	42.5
2 Point Shooting %	51.4%	51.4%
3 Pointers Made	5.6	7.9
3 Pointers Attempted	17.9	23.5
3 Point Shooting %	31.2%	33.6%
Free Throws Made	16.4	23.0
Free Throws Attempted	22.9	29.0
Free Throw %	71.6%	79.4%

Ball Control	CON	ATL
Rebounds	35.8	41.7
Rebounds - Defensive	27.3	29.9
Rebounds - Offensive	8.5	11.9
Turnovers	15.3	13.6
Blocked Shots	5.9	4.2
Steals	6.9	8.3
Fouls	21.5	18.8

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats	CON	ATL
Total Possessions	84.9
Effective Scoring Chances	78.2	83.2

% of Possessions with	CON	ATL
2 Point Attempt	48.9%	42.9%
3 Point Attempt	18.8%	23.7%
Player Fouled	22.1%	25.4%
Turnover	18.0%	16.0%
Opponent Steal	9.8%	8.1%

Odds Per Shot Taken	CON	ATL
Shot Blocked	6.5%	9.2%
Offensive Rebound	22.2%	30.3%