Chicago at Phoenix: Box Score Simulation

Friday May 15, 2026 10:00 pm - Phoenix, AZ
Odds: Phoenix by 4.5, Total Points: 166.5

Matchup Menu: CHI @ PHX

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHI PHX
Points 88.1 85.7
Total Points   173.8
Points From 2-Pointers 45.4 43.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 19.8
Points From Free Throws 17.0 22.6
Shooting CHI PHX
Field Goals Made 31.3 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 68.6 64.8
Field Goal % 45.6% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 24.4 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 17.0 22.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 28.8
Free Throw % 76.7% 78.5%
Ball Control CHI PHX
Rebounds 39.2 40.5
Rebounds - Defensive 30.9 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.9
Turnovers 11.9 12.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 4.0
Steals 6.1 6.3
Fouls 21.5 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHI PHX
Total Possessions 85.1
Effective Scoring Chances 81.5 81.7
% of Possessions with CHI PHX
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.5% 25.2%
Turnover 13.9% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHI PHX
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 22.4%