Chicago at Las Vegas: Box Score Simulation

Friday Jul 3, 2026 10:00 pm - Las Vegas, NV
Odds: Las Vegas by 4.5, Total Points: 179.5

Matchup Menu: CHI @ LVA

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NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHI LVA
Points 82.7 92.9
Total Points   175.6
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 50.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 22.5
Points From Free Throws 16.9 19.9
Shooting CHI LVA
Field Goals Made 29.1 32.8
Field Goals Attempted 70.1 69.2
Field Goal % 41.6% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 47.7 46.7
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 22.4 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 16.9 19.9
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 24.4
Free Throw % 76.8% 81.6%
Ball Control CHI LVA
Rebounds 38.5 43.5
Rebounds - Defensive 29.4 34.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 9.4
Turnovers 12.1 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.8
Steals 6.4 6.4
Fouls 19.3 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Chicago

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHI LVA
Total Possessions 85.4
Effective Scoring Chances 82.5 83.9
% of Possessions with CHI LVA
2 Point Attempt 49.3% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 23.4%
Player Fouled 18.5% 22.6%
Turnover 14.1% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHI LVA
Shot Blocked 8.5% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 24.3%