Phoenix at Dallas: Box Score Simulation

Thursday Jun 11, 2026 9:00 pm - Arlington, TX
Odds: Dallas by 6.5, Total Points: 169.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ DAL

More Games From Jun 11, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX DAL
Points 81.4 90.1
Total Points   171.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.8 49.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 27.1
Points From Free Throws 17.2 14.0
Shooting PHX DAL
Field Goals Made 28.6 33.5
Field Goals Attempted 66.2 69.6
Field Goal % 43.2% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.4 24.5
2 Pointers Attempted 43.1 44.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.7% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 17.2 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 17.5
Free Throw % 78.4% 80.0%
Ball Control PHX DAL
Rebounds 36.9 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 32.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 8.8
Turnovers 11.3 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.9
Steals 5.5 5.8
Fouls 16.2 18.9

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX DAL
Total Possessions 82.4
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 80.3
% of Possessions with PHX DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.1% 27.1%
Player Fouled 22.9% 19.7%
Turnover 13.7% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX DAL
Shot Blocked 5.7% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 23.3%