Phoenix at Connecticut: Box Score Simulation

Friday Aug 7, 2026 7:30 pm - Uncasville, CT
Odds: Phoenix by 6.5, Total Points: 174.5

Matchup Menu: PHX @ CON

More Games From Aug 7, 2026

NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy (which is why we do not include it on other prediction pages throughout the site). We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc). To see our best prediction for the winner and final score of the game, please see the matchup overview page.

Box Score Projection

Scoring PHX CON
Points 83.2 79.8
Total Points   163.0
Points From 2-Pointers 40.6 46.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 19.0
Points From Free Throws 21.9 14.3
Shooting PHX CON
Field Goals Made 27.2 29.6
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 67.2
Field Goal % 45.2% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 23.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 47.6
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 21.9 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 28.0 20.5
Free Throw % 78.5% 69.7%
Ball Control PHX CON
Rebounds 37.4 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 30.1 28.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 10.9
Turnovers 13.8 13.7
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.7
Steals 6.9 7.2
Fouls 17.1 23.5

Playing Style Advantage: Phoenix

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PHX CON
Total Possessions 82.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.3 80.1
% of Possessions with PHX CON
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 20.6%
Player Fouled 28.4% 20.6%
Turnover 16.7% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken PHX CON
Shot Blocked 7.1% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 26.5%